The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index inched down to 52.8 from 53 the previous month, still indicating growth as readings above 48.7 generally show business expansion. … READ MORE >
Economics
Canada’s GDP steady as spending on services remained strong in May
Friday’s data for Canada comes just a day after reports that the U.S. economy recorded its second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, … READ MORE >
American spending and income eroded by multi-decade high inflation
As the first-round effect of inflation on goods and services continues to play out, the second-round effect on wage pressure is showing more concerning signs. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims in July continue rising layoffs trend
Initial jobless continue to trend above the pre-pandemic average, as the U.S. economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter. However, continued jobless claims remain flat, suggesting people receiving unemployment benefits aren’t remaining unemployed for long. … READ MORE >
Q2 US GDP: Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter
From our point of view, the economy will likely soon meet the formal definition of being in a recession, though it isn’t there yet. … READ MORE >
Recession debate: What does the forward market say about the business cycle?
The forward market implies that the conventional recession definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not yet consistent with an actual recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
RSM Canada Supply Chain Index turns positive amid slowing economy
The RSM Canada Supply Chain Index turned positive for the first time since February 2020. … READ MORE >
Unexpectedly strong durable goods orders and trade data temper recession concerns
Durable goods orders and goods trade deficit in June beat expectations, according to data released Wednesday, tempering recession concerns before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate hike later in the day. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >