The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator moved slightly lower in December, continuing a downward trend that began in the last months of 2018. Movement of the leading indicator has traditionally coincided with trends with industrial-sector activity. In this current cycle, the leading indicator has been propped up by a robust … … READ MORE >
Industrials
Boeing’s stopping of 737 Max production will affect far more than just Boeing
Boeing’s announcement this week that it would halt production of its troubled 737 Max in January 2020 will have an impact that extends far beyond its own business, and will most likely shave 0.5% off first-quarter GDP in the United States. … READ MORE >
Equipment as a service – a potential capex solution during a slowdown?
In today’s world of subscription models – streaming videos and music services, household essentials, food preparation – why not apply that concept to industrial machinery? Especially during a manufacturing slowdown when uncertainty is stalling capital investment, the concept – known as equipment as a service — could be a solution for new projects or could support ongoing or experimental projects. … READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. … READ MORE >
Expect a solid jobs report on Friday, despite manufacturing’s weakness
The November nonfarm payrolls report will be released Friday, and despite early reports of softness in manufacturing, we still expect a net increase in total employment of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6%, thanks to a healthier service sector. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing activity declines for fourth straight month, ISM report shows
American factory activity declined for the fourth straight month in November as sluggish global growth and continued uncertainty over trade issues took their toll, according a key gauge released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management.
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U.S. industrial production falls a sharp 0.8% in October
While auto production will undoubtedly rebound in November, the problems at Boeing surrounding the 737 Max and the uncertainty tax imposed on firms caused by the trade conflict with China have knocked the air out of domestic industrial production. … READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index continues to contract
The October ISM Manufacturing Index continued to contract in October, though it improved to 48.3 from September’s reading of 47.9, implying a modestly slower pace of contraction in domestic manufacturing sentiment. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains negative
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to anticipate a slowdown in production, remaining negative in October at -0.59 standard deviations below normal conditions for the manufacturing sector. This is a slight improvement from its September value of -0.79 standard deviations. … READ MORE >
The jobs report comes out Friday. Put a big asterisk on it because of the GM strike.
We expect the U.S. employment report to show a net increase of 75,000 in total employment, well below the three-month average of 157,000. … READ MORE >