Cooler air permeating the nights as summer comes to an end is a perfect metaphor for an American labor market easing from the historically tight conditions of the past few years. In August, the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate settled in at 3.8%, according to Labor Department ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Personal spending grows hot in July as inflation stabilizes
American consumers remained in a position of strength on spending and income growth this summer as inflation stabilized further and the labor market stayed resilient. July's personal spending surged by 0.8% while personal income grew by 0.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. With ... READ MORE >
Consumer products M&A cooled in the first half
Merger and acquisition activity among consumer products companies took a breather in the first half of the year as valuations were reset amid rising interest rates. Closed deal activity declined by more than 25% over the same period a year earlier, driven not only by the reset in valuations but ... READ MORE >
New data points to further economic slowdown and disinflation
Economic data released on Tuesday suggested that the economy is continuing to slow as the labor market loosened, price gains eased and manufacturing contracted in June and July. Indicators came in lower than expected, implying that while the economy has remained resilient, it has lost some ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index moving toward neutral
Having weathered turmoil in the banking sector and the standoff over the debt ceiling, financial conditions in the United States are easing, moving toward levels of risk normally priced into financial assets. But while signals from the equity market are positive, the bond market continues to ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage gauge falls to lowest level since June 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve's closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest rate since June 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. That brought the 12-month increase of overall employment compensation down to ... READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Looking for a working definition of resilience? Take a look at the American economy, which expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter (2.6% on a year-ago basis). Driving that growth was a durable American household, which boosted consumption by 1.6% between ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
The Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. While the September, November and December meetings remain live options for more rate increases, we think that Wednesday’s hike is the final step in a two-year effort to ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits drop in June as rates surge
Housing starts and permits dropped in June after surging in May amid market volatility because of interest rate increases. New residential starts fell by 8% on the month, while permits for new buildings declined by 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. The drop came as mortgage ... READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
The resilient American economy refuses to go gentle into that good night. The evidence is growing stronger: A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates. That reality, reflected by what looks to be ... READ MORE >