Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan's survey on Friday. The top-line sentiment index increased to 72.6 in July, from 64.4 ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Job and producer inflation data raises soft-landing hope
Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. The Fed is heading toward a pivotal period when disinflation and a still-resilient economy are giving more hope on the probability of a soft ... READ MORE >
Inflation slows to 3% in June but the Fed’s work is not done
Disinflation across the economy driven by easing goods and some service costs is good news for beleaguered households that have had to bear the burden of both inflation and interest rate shocks in recent years. The 3% year-ago increase in the consumer price index reported by the Labor ... READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Strong gains continue in June
A remarkable run of monthly job gains continued in June as the American economy generated 209,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. For the year, 1.67 million new jobs have been created, an average of more than 278,000 jobs each month, according to data released by the Bureau ... READ MORE >
Spending and inflation cool in May
Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve's key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. The Fed's job in restoring price stability, however, is not done. Underlying inflation, ... READ MORE >
June jobs preview: Low unemployment shows a rapidly evolving labor market
The national unemployment rate has been 4% or lower since December 2021. Robust job gains have averaged 314,000 this year through May, and gross domestic product grew by a strong 2% in the first quarter—a reflection of the American economy’s underlying resilience. When the June employment ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy was a lot stronger in first quarter, final GDP estimate shows
The U.S. economy was stronger in the first quarter than previous estimates indicated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The third and final estimate of gross domestic product showed a drastic upward revision to a 2.0% gain from 1.3% on a quarterly and annualized basis. The increase ... READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
Midyear global outlook: Slowdown followed by recovery as India leads the way
The global economy is in a precarious state these days, with the resilience that was exhibited earlier this year expected to fade. While India and the United States remain areas of growth, the European Union appears to have slipped into recession and China is not experiencing the strong ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment increased to 63.9 in June, the highest since March as views on current and future economic conditions improved, according to the University of Michigan index released on Friday. While the index has bounced off the bottom of last June, it remains much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >