With the money market at normal levels of risk, and with surging equities balancing out the caution displayed in the bond market, our composite financial conditions market is fast approaching neutral. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Fed’s key wage gauge falls to lowest level since June 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Federal Reserve’s closely watched metric on wage growth—increased by 1.0% in the second quarter, the slowest since June 2021. … READ MORE >
Resilience defined as American economy continues to defy expectations
Driven by the household consumption, the American economy expanded at a 2.4% seasonally adjusted annualized rate. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: The time for an end to rate hikes has arrived
With the policy rate standing above two closely watched measures of inflation, it is now time for the Federal Reserve to allow the economy an extended period to absorb the impact of past rate hikes. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits drop in June as rates surge
New residential starts fell by 8% on the month, while permits for new buildings declined by 3.7%, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
U.S. second-half economic outlook: Muddling through
A rapid decline in inflation amid robust hiring and an unemployment rate that stands at 3.6% despite a steep rise in interest rates underscore a resilient American economy that refuses to go gently into that good night. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment highest in nearly two years
Consumer sentiment jumped to its highest level since September 2021 on the heels of continuing disinflation and an improved view of household finances, according to the University of Michigan’s survey on Friday. … READ MORE >
Job and producer inflation data raises soft-landing hope
Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. … READ MORE >
Inflation slows to 3% in June but the Fed’s work is not done
The 3% year-ago increase in the consumer price index reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday is down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Strong gains continue in June
A remarkable run of monthly job gains continued in June as the economy generated 209,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. … READ MORE >