Roughly 56% of loan officers noted a decline in demand for loans by large and middle market firms, while 53% reported a decline in credit demand by small firms, according to the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released Monday. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at the Fed’s next meeting in June. … READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve’s key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected, helping to seal the deal on another rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. … READ MORE >
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction and a large pullback in business investment offset the increase in household consumption. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops to lowest level since July 2022
Consumer confidence in April dipped to the lowest level since last July, driven by the deterioration in economic expectations as recession concerns mount. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Canadian inflation fell to lowest since August 2021
Canada’s inflation rate dropped to 4.3% in March on an annual basis from 5.4% in the prior month, driven largely by comparisons to the surging energy and food prices of a year ago. … READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. … READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. … READ MORE >
What the surprise oil production cut by OPEC+ means
Oil markets are reeling after OPEC+ said in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it would cut up to 1.15 million barrels a day in its target production starting next month. … READ MORE >