New filings for jobless benefits inched down last week to 192,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic level where they have been since December, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. That low level continues to suggest a strong labor market where companies hold on to their ... READ MORE >
Inflation
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
With demand remaining strong, middle market firms have been increasing their inventories during the current quarter, with just under a majority expecting to do so over the next six months, according to the RSM US Middle Market Business Index. Inventories are now growing at twice the rate of ... READ MORE >
Jobs and inflation data show a still-strong economy
Both producer inflation and jobless claims came in stronger than expected in the most recent government reports released on Thursday. The data adds further pressure on the Federal Reserve as it aims to steer the economy toward a soft landing. With strong data accumulating, current conditions ... READ MORE >
Retail sales post strong gains in January, though it may not last
Retail sales in the United States posted a stronger-than-expected rebound in January after two straight holiday months of disappointing declines. Sales increased by 3.0% on the month and by 2.3% if automobiles are excluded, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Evan after controlling for ... READ MORE >
Inflation grew faster in January, bolstering the case for more rate hikes
Inflation accelerated in January, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates at its next two meetings. January’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% on the month, rising from a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of ... READ MORE >
Rising interest payments, deficits and the debt ceiling crisis
The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt. While these interest payments are rising quickly as the Federal Reserve raises rates to tame inflation, it’s important to have some perspective. As ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
As the Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its interest rate increases recently, financial conditions in the American economy have eased as well. The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal as asset prices anticipate improved prospects for reduced ... READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain below the pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits continued to defy market expectations, falling to 183,000 last week from 186,000 a week earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. New jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, remained below the pre-pandemic level of 218,000 for the fifth week ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
Price stability for the past three decades has been defined as a 2% inflation target, far below the elevated levels of the past year. Now, after a year of aggressively raising interest rates to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve faces the monumental choice on when to pause its rate hikes. On ... READ MORE >