The Federal Reserve’s key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected, helping to seal the deal on another rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. … READ MORE >
Inflation
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction and a large pullback in business investment offset the increase in household consumption. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops to lowest level since July 2022
Consumer confidence in April dipped to the lowest level since last July, driven by the deterioration in economic expectations as recession concerns mount. … READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are starting to pull down growth just as a period of tighter lending will probably cool the economy further over the next few months. … READ MORE >
Canadian inflation fell to lowest since August 2021
Canada’s inflation rate dropped to 4.3% in March on an annual basis from 5.4% in the prior month, driven largely by comparisons to the surging energy and food prices of a year ago. … READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. … READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. … READ MORE >
What the surprise oil production cut by OPEC+ means
Oil markets are reeling after OPEC+ said in a surprise announcement on Sunday that it would cut up to 1.15 million barrels a day in its target production starting next month. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key gauges of inflation soften in February
Prices grew by 0.3% on the month; for the core component, they rose by 0.3% while the “super core” stayed at 0.3%. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 earlier, staying below the pre-pandemic level, while fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised down slightly from a 2.7% increase to 2.6%. … READ MORE >