According to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index based on those surveys, manufacturing activity remains at 1.8 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Inflation
The great deposit migration, moral hazard and a fragmented banking system
The recent financial shock has exposed the underlying problem in the banking sector: A flawed regulatory framework treats small and medium-size institutions unequally compared to their largest competitors. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop further
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 191,000 last week, remaining below the pre-pandemic average and below expectations of a slight increase to 197,000. … READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
The Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday amid a quickly evolving global banking crisis. … READ MORE >
Canada inflation slows in February
Canada’s inflation plunged to 5.2% from 5.9% on a year-ago basis as comparisons to last year’s elevated numbers kicked in, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Financial shock sending Fed proxy rate into restrictive terrain
Should the crisis deteriorate further, with more bank seizures and further problems inside systemically financially important institutions, then the degree of financial shock is equivalent to 150 basis points of tightening. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell in March, before the financial turmoil
Consumer sentiment for March dropped to 63.4 from 67 as consumers’ confidence in the current economic conditions and their expectations both worsened on the month, though the survey results did not reflect the recent turmoil in financial markets … READ MORE >
The great deposit migration and emergency borrowing at the Fed discount window
In the past week alone, the Federal Reserve’s loans outstanding to the financial system have ballooned to about $318 billion, up from $15 billion a week ago. … READ MORE >
How many jobs need to be sacrificed to tame inflation? Cost is rising, RSM models show.
Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims and housing starts come in hotter than expected
Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. … READ MORE >