Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Jobless claims and housing starts come in hotter than expected
Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. … READ MORE >
It’s a matter of trust: Financial conditions tighten on stability risks
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index sits at 1.4 standard deviations below neutral, indicating increases in volatility and risk priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. … READ MORE >
February CPI: Balancing price stability vs. financial stability as inflation remains elevated
Inflation in the United States accelerated modestly in February, increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 6% on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job gains came in hotter than expected as wage growth spiked
The net change in Canada’s total employment dropped to 21,800 from a whopping 150,000 increase in January yet remained above the expectations of only 10,000. … READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
February showed a 311,000 net change in total employment amid a 3.6% unemployment rate and 4.6% increase in average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest level since December
New claims for jobless benefits last week came in hotter than expected at 211,000, significantly higher than the 190,000 of the previous week. … READ MORE >
Job openings remained plentiful in January, adding to pressure on the Fed
January’s job openings—a proxy for labor demand—fell to 10.8 million from an upwardly revised 11.2 million in December. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. … READ MORE >