A third straight month of improvement in top-line inflation data implies that conditions are moving in the direction where the Federal Reserve can consider further moderation in the pace of its rate hike campaign to restore price stability. The tone and tenor of the data imply an underlying ... READ MORE >
Inflation
U.S. financial markets in the new year
Financial markets have started the year facing a host of challenges, including the prospect of a stand-off over the debt ceiling in a divided Congress and the possibility of a recession later this year. At the same time, businesses are contending with higher costs associated with the ... READ MORE >
Canada job gains top forecast, complicating decision on rates
The Canadian labour market once again kept managers, investors and, most important, the Bank of Canada on edge as it added 104,000 net jobs in December, significantly higher than the forecast of 5,000. December was the second month in the last three that job gains exceeded 100,000. The ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
If one would have asked a year ago if the economy would expand at above a 2.5% clip and produce 4.52 million jobs by the end of the year, all while the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 450 basis points, the answer would probably have been no. But that is just where the economy stands ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing posts first decline in nearly 3 years
Industry and government data on Wednesday continued to paint a mixed picture of the economy as the end of the business cycle is approaching. The manufacturing sector showed its first monthly contraction following 30 straight months of growth, highlighting the impact of restrictive monetary conditions that ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Strong close to year as wages remain elevated
We expect the December U.S. jobs report on Friday to show an increase in total employment of 220,000 positions, which would bring the total number of jobs created last year to roughly 4.53 million. While such a gain would fall below the three-month moving average of 263,000 through the end of ... READ MORE >
Private investment and the reintroduction of risk
The end of hyper-globalization heralds the end of an era of low inflation and low interest rates. Regime changes in global trade, growth and liquidity, along with a significant increase in geopolitical tensions, are reintroducing political and economic risk. To manage this risk, middle ... READ MORE >
U.S. becomes the top destination for foreign direct investment
Foreign direct investment continues be a source of economic strength for the United States. Rising rates, a strong dollar, an innovative economy as well as the rule of law continue to attract significant capital into American-based corporations. That flow of capital has become so strong, in fact, that ... READ MORE >
RSM’s economic outlook for Canada in eight charts
Economies respond to financial conditions, which are determined by market expectations for monetary policy. With inflation still elevated and demand surging in Canada, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates to cool an overheating economy. While the Canadian economy may ... READ MORE >
Canada inflation eases, but the fight is not over
Inflation in Canada inched down in November, implying more room for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates despite a slowing economy. November's headline Consumer Price Index dropped to a 6.8% increase from 6.9% on a year-ago basis, remaining significantly above the 2% target rate, ... READ MORE >