We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the jobs data for February is released on Friday, with many of the gains attributable to seasonal fluctuations in hiring. … READ MORE >
Inflation
New jobless claims fall again amid strong labor market
New claims dropped by 2,000 to 190,000 for the week ending Feb. 24, lower than the pre-pandemic average at 218,000, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls in February amid a worsening outlook
The top-line confidence index dropped to 102.9 from 106.0 in the prior month, while the expectations index fell to 69.7 from 76.0. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy stalled even as consumer spending held up
The Canadian economy stalled in the fourth quarter, eking out a 0.03% gain in what was a significant downside surprise from expectations of a 1.6% increase.= … READ MORE >
Business spending on equipment rose in January
Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. … READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
The forward market now anticipates a 5.25% terminal rate for the federal funds rate at the Fed’s June meeting and then a gradual unwinding just below 4% in two years. … READ MORE >
January’s spending shows a hot economy despite rate hikes
The Fed’s key gauge of inflation—the personal consumption expenditures deflator—rose by 0.6% on the month for both the top-line and the core numbers, bringing the year-over-year inflation to 5.4% and 4.7% for the two series, respectively. … READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
We now expect at least three 25 basis-point hikes at the Fed’s March, May and June policy meetings with the risk of a 50 basis-point hike in March. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down last week to 192,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic level where they have been since December. … READ MORE >
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
The surge in inventories raises the risk that firms will be caught with excess supplies just as demand begins to slow down this year. … READ MORE >