Investments in business equipment posted a sharp rebound in January after two consecutive months of disappointing declines. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
The forward market now anticipates a 5.25% terminal rate for the federal funds rate at the Fed’s June meeting and then a gradual unwinding just below 4% in two years. … READ MORE >
January’s spending shows a hot economy despite rate hikes
The Fed’s key gauge of inflation—the personal consumption expenditures deflator—rose by 0.6% on the month for both the top-line and the core numbers, bringing the year-over-year inflation to 5.4% and 4.7% for the two series, respectively. … READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
We now expect at least three 25 basis-point hikes at the Fed’s March, May and June policy meetings with the risk of a 50 basis-point hike in March. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down last week to 192,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic level where they have been since December. … READ MORE >
U.S. inventories are growing at twice the rate of sales
The surge in inventories raises the risk that firms will be caught with excess supplies just as demand begins to slow down this year. … READ MORE >
Jobs and inflation data show a still-strong economy
Both producer inflation and jobless claims came in stronger than expected in the most recent government reports released on Thursday. The data adds further pressure on the Federal Reserve as it aims to steer the economy toward a soft landing. … READ MORE >
Retail sales post strong gains in January, though it may not last
Sales increased by 3.0% on the month and by 2.3% if automobiles are excluded, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. … READ MORE >
Inflation grew faster in January, bolstering the case for more rate hikes
January’s Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% on the month, rising from a 0.1% increase in December, and by 6.4% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Rising interest payments, deficits and the debt ceiling crisis
The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt. … READ MORE >