Durable goods orders and shipments posted sharp increases in October, defying recession fears, according to data from the Census Bureau on Wednesday. New orders rose by 1% in October, while core orders, which exclude transportation and defense, rose by 0.8%. Orders for capital goods, a proxy for ... READ MORE >
Inflation
RSM US Supply Chain Index returns to pre-pandemic level
Amid the many challenges in today’s economy, there is a bright spot: Supply chains, after a period of severe disruption, are back to normal. Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. That ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and initial jobless claims give Fed mixed signals
Builders continued to pull back on the supply of new houses in October amid sharp declines in demand as mortgage rates steepened, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. The decline came as the labor market continued to show resilience, with initial jobless claims falling unexpectedly by 4,000 to ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. The risk to the economic outlook has not abated after one month of encouraging consumer price index data. Central banks continue to increase the cost of ... READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. The strong month, which followed a flat month in September, suggested that, at least for now, a recession was not at hand. Sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.3% with broad-based increases. Nine of ... READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
As the Federal Reserve struggles to tame inflation, the central bank is raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions in what we think is a regime change that will increase the cost of both public and private debt and curb growth. We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June at 50, according to survey data released Friday. Both sentiment over current conditions and future expectations deteriorated significantly, ... READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
Inflation in the U.S. economy is approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability and households can begin seeing possible relief from a deterioration in real income. The October consumer price index, which rose by 0.4% ... READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. But with the right targeted measures that encourage businesses to make productivity-enhancing investments, ... READ MORE >