Changes in construction employment are often viewed as an indicator of economic activity. Before a recession, the construction industry typically sheds workers, as developers slow their projects amid a slowing economy. From this perspective, the October jobs report would seem to represent a peak, as ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Canada adds a stunning 108,000 jobs in October, reversing decline of prior 5 months
In a stunning turnaround, Canada added 108,000 jobs in October, reversing all the losses from May to September. The outsize gain and the resilience of the job market suggest that the Bank of Canada will announce another supersize interest rate hike next month. Wages increased by a robust 5.6% and ... READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Even after a sharp increase in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate over the past 10 months, an inversion of the yield curve and a significant dislocation in equity and fixed-income markets, there is scant evidence of any slack in the American jobs market. The jobs report for October did not alter that ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims inch down amid tight labor market
New filings for jobless benefits inched down by 1,000 last week from 218,000, remaining near their historical lows, according to government data released Thursday. With the data on job openings coming out hotter than expected this week, the imbalance between labor demand and supply continued to keep ... READ MORE >
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace of its hikes while it assesses the impact of past increases. We expect at least a 50-basis-point hike in December, another 50-point hike in January and then ... READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing production grow more than expected
Job openings came in hotter than expected in September, suggesting that the imbalance in the labor market will take longer to resolve than originally anticipated. There were 1.9 job vacancies for each unemployed worker, near a record high, according to data from the Labor Department released ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Continued signs of a slowdown
The downturn in manufacturing activity continued for the sixth consecutive month in October, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. With surging inflation and rising interest rates acting as a deadweight on business activity and expansion, it is likely that the global economy is either in or ... READ MORE >
Risk in UK financial markets eases ahead of new government
The past few weeks in the U.K. financial markets have been extraordinary. The risk premium placed on the issuance of public and private debt has roiled both domestic and global financial markets. The demise of the Truss government and the prospect of a new prime minister with a more fiscally ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall below pre-pandemic level
New filings for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly last week despite the impact of Hurricane Ian in Florida. New claims fell by 5.3% to 214,000, below the pre-pandemic average in 2019 as layoffs remain historically low, according to government data released Thursday. In the bigger context, new ... READ MORE >
U.S. housing starts continue to fall amid rate hikes
New housing starts fell by 8.1% in September as the impact of rising mortgage rates worked through the housing market, the Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. There were 1.4 million housing starts on an annualized basis in September, significantly lower than the 1.7 million that we see as needed to ... READ MORE >