Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. … READ MORE >
Inflation
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. … READ MORE >
Canada job gains slow in November
The Canadian economy added 10,100 jobs in November, easing some of the concerns over an overheating labor market after a blockbuster October jobs report. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector nears contraction
The ISM’s manufacturing index slowed to 49%, barely above the contraction threshold at 48.7%. It was the third straight decline as demand for manufactured goods stalled. … READ MORE >
Spending holds strong as inflation moderates in October
Spending rose by 0.8% in October while income increased by 0.7%. After adjusting for inflation, real spending rose by 0.5% and income was up by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Job openings and quits continue to moderate
There remained 1.7 job vacancies per unemployed worker, significantly higher than 2019’s average of 1.2. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Sentiment sours even as activity remains stout
Our composite measure of manufacturer surveys conducted by five regional central banks indicates that manufacturing activity remains at 1.6 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops as outlook darkens
The Conference Board’s confidence index dipped to 100.2 in November from 102.2 in the prior month, significantly below the pre-pandemic level at 130. … READ MORE >
The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Durable goods spending and jobless claims rise
Durable goods orders and shipments posted sharp increases in October, defying recession fears, while jobless claims increased last week. … READ MORE >