Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. … READ MORE >
Inflation
Housing starts and initial jobless claims give Fed mixed signals
The housing market continued to cool, but not the labor market, government data showed. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls as outlook worsens
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index declined by a sharp 5.2 points to 54.7 in the first half of November, slightly above the all-time low in June. … READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
We estimate that there is an approximately 18-month lag between changes in housing prices and those in the housing inflation components. … READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
U.S. inflation is most likely approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. … READ MORE >
What’s behind the slowdown in construction hiring?
The October jobs report would seem to represent a peak in the construction industry as builders added only 1,000 jobs. But is more at play? … READ MORE >