There remained 1.7 job vacancies per unemployed worker, significantly higher than 2019’s average of 1.2. … READ MORE >
Inflation
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Sentiment sours even as activity remains stout
Our composite measure of manufacturer surveys conducted by five regional central banks indicates that manufacturing activity remains at 1.6 standard deviations below normal. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops as outlook darkens
The Conference Board’s confidence index dipped to 100.2 in November from 102.2 in the prior month, significantly below the pre-pandemic level at 130. … READ MORE >
The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Durable goods spending and jobless claims rise
Durable goods orders and shipments posted sharp increases in October, defying recession fears, while jobless claims increased last week. … READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index returns to pre-pandemic level
Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and initial jobless claims give Fed mixed signals
The housing market continued to cool, but not the labor market, government data showed. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. … READ MORE >
Retail sales surge, easing recession fears for now
Retail sales data surged in October as holiday shopping started early for the second year in a row. … READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in the near term while at the same time reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. … READ MORE >