Premature calls for the Federal Reserve to pause or pivot on its campaign to tame inflation should be politely dismissed given the 0.1% increase in top-line inflation in August. That gain translates into a 8.3% year-over-year increase in the headline number, according to government data released ... READ MORE >
Inflation
Canada’s jobless rate rises off its record low
Canada lost 40,000 jobs in August, bringing the unemployment rate up to 5.4% from its record low in July as construction and education led the declines. August’s rate is the highest in seven months, and the first increase since April 2021. The change in the job numbers prompts a question: Is the ... READ MORE >
European energy crisis: A quandary with no good policy options
Europe is facing a growing energy crisis as Russia cuts off natural gas supplies, leaving nations with no good policy choices to contain the fallout. The United Kingdom on Thursday announced a price cap that will freeze the average household’s energy bill at 2,500 pounds for two years. This scheme ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop to lowest level since May
The labor market showed continuing strength as last week's new filings for jobless claims fell for the fourth week in a row, tempering recession concerns and bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its interest rate increases. New claims dropped to 222,000, the fewest since ... READ MORE >
Bank of Canada increases policy rate to 3.25%
The Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25%, and said that it would continue to reduce its balance sheet. The rate hike came as no surprise, with inflation still pervasive. While economic growth has moderated abroad and at ... READ MORE >
Service sector continued to expand in August
Service sector growth inched up in August, marking the 27th month in a row of expansion despite recession fears, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management released on Tuesday. New orders and employment, a proxy for future business activities, also grew faster in August, suggesting a ... READ MORE >
Falling gas prices imply further inflation relief
Retail gasoline prices in the United States are poised to continue their recent decline as the summer driving season ends and households fall back into more traditional schedules. The average retail gasoline price has declined to $3.78 per gallon from a peak of $5.01 on June 13—a 21.2% drop—and ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Another robust month as employment increases by 315,000
American labor market dynamics remain tilted toward sustained strength in hiring and rising wages. In August, U.S. total employment increased by 315,000 while the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% (3.65%). The labor force participation rate advanced to 62.4% on the back of 786,000 people ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims show that jobs remain plentiful
First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 232,000 for the week ending Aug. 27 as continuing claims increased modestly to 1.438 million from a revised 1.412 million for the week ending Aug. 20. From our vantage point, it would appear that the pace of firings is settling into a pace ... READ MORE >
After a strong recovery in Canada, economic headwinds set in
The Canadian economy has had a robust recovery from the lockdowns of the pandemic as pent-up consumer demand and generous government spending have fueled growth. But now with rising inflation, especially in food and energy prices, and a historically tight labour market, that growth is ... READ MORE >