Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was blunt in his remarks at Jackson Hole, Wyo.: “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.” … READ MORE >
Inflation
Spending remains steady on strong income growth and inflation relief
U.S. personal income and spending in July signaled a gradual rebound of the economy in the third quarter after six months of declines in gross domestic product. … READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
RSM U.S. Supply Chain Index: Back to normal for first time since pandemic hit
The U.S. Supply Chain Index in July was back above neutral for the first time in nearly three years, suggesting substantial relief coming from the supply-induced components of inflation. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims rise as producer inflation deflates for first time in 2 years
While there has been a clear upward trend in new unemployment claims, the number remained relatively low compared to the historical standard, especially with significant downward revisions to data for the last two weeks of July. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand
Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. Since January, total employment has increased by 3.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has declined from 4% to 3.5%. With such a robust labor market, claims that the economy is in recession … … READ MORE >
American spending and income eroded by multi-decade high inflation
As the first-round effect of inflation on goods and services continues to play out, the second-round effect on wage pressure is showing more concerning signs. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
At this critical juncture, with the policy rate residing in neutral terrain, it is natural for the Fed to adjust its rhetoric as it considers next steps. … READ MORE >
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle
Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed income markets. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence drops as new home sales slump
Consumer confidence continued to fall in July to the lowest level since February 2021 amid inflation angst and an economic slowdown. Sales of new homes fell by 8.1% in June. … READ MORE >