Canada’s rail work stoppage could disrupt Canada’s supply chains, costing billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs. Supply chain snarl could also put upward pressures on prices just as inflation returns to 2.5%. But on a broader scale, the impact would be minimal and short-lived if workers ... READ MORE >
Supply chain
U.S. economic outlook: Recession on the horizon
Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. For some time, our forecast has included a 65% probability of recession over the next 12 months. Next year, we expect a 0.1% decline in ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index returns to pre-pandemic level
Amid the many challenges in today’s economy, there is a bright spot: Supply chains, after a period of severe disruption, are back to normal. Our RSM US Supply Chain Index pointed to supply efficiency for the fourth month in a row, reaching 0.49 standard deviations above neutral in October. That ... READ MORE >
Canada’s supply chain healthy as demand slows
The RSM Canada Supply Chain Index reached 2.31 in August, one of the highest readings since 2000, thanks to improvements across delivery time, prices, and inventory levels, signaling sufficient health of the supply chain. This sharp increase represents a dramatic shift from just a few months ago; in ... READ MORE >
Earnings call roundup: Space companies
Even as space and intelligence companies grappled with a tight labor market and inflation in the second quarter, they still capitalized on vertical integration efforts and successful launch test phases to remain competitive, according to recent earnings calls. Executives said they were seeking to ... READ MORE >
How high must unemployment rise to tame inflation?
Restoring price stability is now the paramount policy goal at the Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell went out of his way on Friday to point out the lessons of the high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, and the sacrifice it took to wring it out of the economy after years of delays. "Our aim is to ... READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. In the best-case scenario, the Fed, by raising rates, reduces discretionary spending enough to stabilize prices, and the economy continues to ... READ MORE >
RSM U.S. Supply Chain Index: Back to normal for first time since pandemic hit
The U.S. Supply Chain Index in July was back above neutral for the first time in nearly three years on the back of the continuing strong rebounds in inventories and capacity utilization. With most of the COVID-19 concerns behind us and the renormalization of supply-chain linkages around the world, we ... READ MORE >
The U.S. may see another supply whipsaw amid transport logjams
The months-long lockdown in Shanghai, China’s most populous city and home to the world’s largest container port, is causing a pile-up of ships at anchor off the Chinese coast. Factory shutdowns and the reduced flow of goods from the city’s port will cause another jolt to U.S. supply chains in the weeks ... READ MORE >