The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
Supply chain
RSM U.S. Supply Chain Index: Back to normal for first time since pandemic hit
The U.S. Supply Chain Index in July was back above neutral for the first time in nearly three years, suggesting substantial relief coming from the supply-induced components of inflation. … READ MORE >
The U.S. may see another supply whipsaw amid transport logjams
The months-long lockdown in Shanghai, China’s most populous city and home to the world’s largest container port, is causing a pile-up of ships at anchor off the Chinese coast. Factory shutdowns and the reduced flow of goods from the city’s port will cause another jolt to U.S. supply chain in the weeks and months to come.
The predictable knock-on effects of the Shanghai lockdown–while far from a total supply disruption akin to that of the early days of the pandemic—will certainly sustain or worsen supply shortages and sustain worldwide inflation. … READ MORE >