Despite the dark winter caused by the global pandemic, financial conditions in England have moved in a constructive direction that can support a near-term economic recovery and expansion in 2022. … READ MORE >
United Kingdom
Bank of England policy rate decision: reduced economic outlook, negative interest rate policy not imminent
Reduced growth amid a more optimistic outlook later this year is the primary takeaway from the February rate decision by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. This implies a slower pace of growth near 5% in 2021 followed by a rapid rebound closer to 7% in 2022. … READ MORE >
Bank of England: Deteriorating economic outlook and negative interest rates
The Bank of England at its meeting on Thursday is expected to keep its policy matrix unchanged as it downgrades its economic outlook and publishes its view on the use of negative interest rates. … READ MORE >
RSM U.K. Financial Conditions Index: Adjusting expectations after double-dosed shocks
The news that Oxford/AstraZeneca has created a potential vaccine will bolster U.K. financial conditions and economic prospects heading into the end of the year. … READ MORE >
More promise, more problems: Cyberattacks threaten life sciences companies researching COVID-19 vaccine
Picture this scenario: Researchers at a biotech company are working tirelessly on a potential coronavirus vaccine and planning to start a phase three clinical trial soon. This work results in more visibility for the company, and an influx of capital investment. But with that greater visibility and investment comes added … … READ MORE >
Pricing in the end of the current British business cycle
The RSM U.K. Financial Conditions Index — which measures the degree of financial accommodation built into British financial asset prices – plummeted from normal conditions just four weeks ago to 3.9 standard deviations below normal levels of implied market risk. … READ MORE >
Economics of a global health crisis
Global economic markets’ reaction to China’s coronavirus has been severe, resulting in a significant safe haven move into U.S. government securities by international investors. Whether the virus has a lasting impact on the broader global economy depends largely on the ability of the world’s major governments to effectively deploy resources to contain the outbreak. … READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases as general election draws closer
The RSM Brexit Stress Index closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what seems like an eternity since former Prime Minister Theresa May stepped down and current PM Boris Johnson moved in. … READ MORE >
Brexit stress gets reprieve due to Supreme Court ruling
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased slightly during the week, as Britain’s Supreme Court ordered the resumption of Parliament and restored some sort of order to the Brexit chaos.
The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 1.20 standard deviations above normal levels of stress, down from last week’s close at 1.27. While stress remains high, it has retreated from the extreme levels of earlier this month when a constitutional crisis and a clumsy exit appeared inevitable. … READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index: Reacting to a Parliamentary dose of recession prevention
The RSM Brexit Stress Index surged sharply during the week amid attempts by Boris Johnson, the Conservative Party prime minister, to curtail objections to a no-deal Brexit but eased at week’s end as Parliament regained control of government. … READ MORE >