It is time for the Fed to drop its over-emphasis on data dependency and move to a more strategic view that takes into account the risks to the outlook that will be front and center this year and next. … READ MORE >
USA
To understand rising rates and volatility, look to regime change in global economy
Gone is the era of low inflation, low interest rates, a global savings glut and sagging aggregate demand. In its place is a new framework featuring scarce capital, insufficient aggregate supply, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The political economy of demographic growth
Underlying demographic realities show that those current policy preferences for immigration restrictions stand at cross-purposes with the needs of the U.S. economy.
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Morning market minute: Modeling the impact of tariffs
A simple exercise that assumes tariffs of 25% across the board and 60% on Chinese goods implies that the U.S. economy over the next decade would be approximately 2% smaller than it otherwise would be. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Jan. 13, 2025
J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference highlights and more in this week’s life sciences update. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: How tariffs fall harder on lower-income households
Tariffs, or import taxes, are inherently regressive, as lower-income households spend a greater proportion of their earnings on day-to-day expenses. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales continued to grow in December
American consumers ended the year on a strong note, with total retail sales rising by 0.4%, … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Regime change and financial conditions
Secular stagnation that for years featured low inflation, low interest rates and plentiful capital has been replaced by competition for capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates. … READ MORE >
Inflation improvement stalled in December ahead of price increases
The CPI data affirmed the growing inclination at the Fed that any further rate cuts—if there are any at all this year— should be postponed until the second half of the year. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The tax over policy uncertainty is rising
Volatility across asset markets has been rising as investors adjust to changes in fiscal, trade and financial policies. Will this volatility spill into the real economy? … READ MORE >