Gross domestic product in the United States advanced by a solid 2.3% in the final quarter of the year, driven primarily by a 4.2% increase in household consumption and a 2.5% rise in overall government spending. The top-line figure was dragged down by a 0.93% decline in inventories. For the year, GDP ... READ MORE >
USA
Morning market minute: Managing currency risk in an era of regime change
We expect the international investment community to continue purchasing U.S. financial assets, and in particular to continue financing the U.S. budget and trade deficits. Not only are the yields on U.S. government bonds and securities higher than those in most developed economies, but there is the ... READ MORE >
Fed pauses rate cuts as inflation flattens out and policy changes loom
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% and said it would remain on pause in the near term. The Fed’s decisions set up an inevitable clash with President Trump, who is on record as wanting lower rates in contrast with the hawkish pause adopted by the ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The questions that Powell will not want to answer
When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell meets the news media today, he will face difficult questions on trade, tariffs, immigration and fiscal policy. His answers to those questions will drive whatever volatility takes place across asset classes given the sensitivity of the U.S. 10-year Treasury ... READ MORE >
Strong core business spending hints at another robust GDP report
American business spending on core equipment came in higher than forecast in December, with both orders and shipments pointing to strong growth to end the year, according to Commerce Department data released on Tuesday. Stronger growth, however, caused consumer confidence to fall in January as ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Rate path more uncertain as era of fiscal dominance begins
The Federal Open Market Committee will in all likelihood keep the federal funds rate unchanged in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% when it meets this week. Our forecast of the optimal federal funds rate implies a range between 3.75% and 4%, or a need for two 25 basis-point reductions this year—one in ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Managing the dollar’s risk, volatility and tariffs
With the Trump administration’s changes in trade and financial policies looming, the U.S. dollar is sensitive to headline risks and will be subject to volatility in the coming months. And that volatility injects an uncertainty tax that distorts the efficient functioning of financial markets and the ... READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Jan. 20, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here's the latest. Four trends relating to AI in medtech MedTech Dive highlighted four key issues to monitor this year including: new FDA guidance, payer hesitancy to artificial intelligence-backed products, the new focus on use of ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: A look at the U.S. trade and current account balances
The key to rebalancing the global economy depends on narrowing the U.S. current account and trade deficits. For years, the global economy has operated on a simple, if unstated, agreement: As the United States has imported more goods and services than it exports, its trading partners have used some of ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The contradictions at the heart of U.S. economic policy
Abraham Lincoln once said that a house divided against itself cannot stand. That was true in 1858 and it’s true today when it comes to economic policy. The Trump administration’s strategic economic objective is to rebalance the global economy. That is, the Trump administration intends to reverse the ... READ MORE >