As the yield on the 10-year Treasury advances toward 4.5%—which is our baseline forecast for next year—the inflation risk premium is supporting that move. The inflation risk premium is the compensation that investors demand for the possibility that inflation may rise, or fall, and that premium is ... READ MORE >
USA
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
Ahead of this week’s policy decision by the Federal Open Market Committee and the publication of the November personal consumption expenditures price index, a look at the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate is in order. In the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections released in September, that ... READ MORE >
Tariff discussions in health care and life sciences industries stoke global supply chain concerns
The health care and life sciences industries could be facing significant changes under a second Trump administration. From the prospect of new tariffs to the likelihood that the BIOSECURE Act will be enacted, companies are scrambling to adjust to what could be a changed operating ... READ MORE >
American household net worth sets record, bringing debt-to-asset ratio to 50-year low
American household net worth reached a record in the third quarter, rising to nearly $170 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve on Thursday. The primary driver of this increase was rising equity prices, which added $2.8 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of significant ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. Given current growth and inflation dynamics, we expect that the Fed’s rate cuts will then be on pause until March at the ... READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of December 9, 2024
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here's the latest. FTC appointments possibly signal decreased scrutiny on biopharma M&A President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Andrew Ferguson and Mark Meador to the Federal Trade Commission signals a potential shift ... READ MORE >
Asset management firms are optimistic on Q3 earnings calls as private asset demand rises
Optimism was a major theme in asset management firms’ third-quarter earnings calls, transcripts show. Firms mostly focused on increasing inflows and fee revenues, as well as growing their assets under management in Q3; some even reported the best results in their history. Driving the optimistic ... READ MORE >
Inflation ticks up amid seasonal factors and strong growth
The disinflation trend continued to stall in November, according to the most recent consumer price index data released on Wednesday. November marked the first month since April when overall CPI inflation grew by 0.3% monthly, or 3.7% annualized, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and a cause ... READ MORE >
Holiday season business insights: Digital sales shine in early numbers
Initial holiday sales numbers reveal single-digit year-over-year growth driven by robust e-commerce activity. Total U.S. online sales during cyber week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) rose by 8.2%, with a notable 7.3% increase on Cyber Monday alone, according to Adobe Analytics. Mastercard also ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Inside the University of Michigan’s survey on consumer sentiment for November, buying conditions for durable goods increased by more than 20%. Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. These purchases will bolster gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, ... READ MORE >