The late-year selloff in the bond market has begun to look overextended. Recent trading pushed 10-year yields back down to 4.56% on Jan. 17 after reaching as high as 4.8%. The sudden shift in the market coincided with the growing sentiment that the Federal Reserve will cut the overnight policy rate by ... READ MORE >
USA
To understand rising rates and volatility, look to regime change in global economy
Over the past three years, the core analytical framework we have used to understand the post-pandemic economy is that a fundamental structural shift, or regime change, is taking place. It's this shift that explains why long-term interest rates have been rising even as the Federal Reserve has ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The political economy of demographic growth
The American public expressed its preference for reduced immigration in electing President Trump to a second term. Yet underlying demographic realities show that those current policy preferences stand at cross-purposes with the needs of the U.S. economy. In a recent report, the Congressional ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Modeling the impact of tariffs
As firms and households await the expected increase in import taxes through a flurry of executive orders over the next several days, it is important to note just how challenging it will be to estimate their impact on growth, employment and inflation. Modeling such a shock to the economy depends upon ... READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Jan. 13, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here's the latest. J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference highlights Key discussions on the first day of the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference focused on innovation, partnerships and market trends, reports Fierce Pharma. Industry ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: How tariffs fall harder on lower-income households
Economic inequality in the United States has been a fact of life for decades. And the tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump is proposing will fall squarely on the shoulders of U.S. households, particularly those with lower incomes. Read RSM's global economic outlook in the latest issue of The ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales continued to grow in December
American consumers ended the year on a strong note, with sales at retail stores, restaurants and online continuing to show significant gains in December. Total retail sales increased by 0.4%, following an upward revision to 0.8% from 0.7% in November, according to Commerce Department data released on ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Regime change and financial conditions
Regime change continues to be the foundation of our analytical framework for the post-pandemic economy. Secular stagnation that for years featured low inflation, low interest rates and plentiful capital has been replaced by competition for capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates. During ... READ MORE >
Inflation improvement stalled in December ahead of price increases
Stalled improvement in the December consumer price index appears to be the growing consensus among policymakers and investors as they await turn-of-the-year price increases. The expected adoption of expansionary fiscal policies, as well as greater restrictions on immigration, are pointing toward ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The tax over policy uncertainty is rising
It’s no mystery that rising uncertainty over the new presidential administration’s policies is one of the major risks to financial markets and the economic outlook. Volatility across asset markets has been rising, and is poised to continue increasing, as investors adjust to changes in fiscal, trade and ... READ MORE >