We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
USA
Market Minute: Yields spike as financial conditions tighten and investors seek cash
The 10-year Treasury yield surged on Tuesday to close at 4.29% in a sign of the pressure building across the fixed income complex as investors seek cash. … READ MORE >
More noise than signal: U.S. adds 228,000 jobs in March
For now, the entry of people into the workforce and wage gains will provide a cushion for the economy as it adjusts to the new realities of higher taxes on imported goods. … READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of March 31, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here’s the latest. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: First the tariff supply shock, then the inflation
With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >
Canada spared from worst of new U.S. tariffs—but economic challenges remain
The absence of new tariffs is a small consolation prize for Canada as the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on most countries, but economic challenges remain. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. effective tariff rate hits 23%, creating conditions for downturn
The effective tariff rate in the United States now stands at 23% following Wednesday’s announcements of new tariffs, with the trade-weighted average mean currently resting at 18%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Ending the American put on the global economy
As the reality of what may be up to a 20% increase in taxes on imports sets in, global production and consumption will fall back as will imports into the U.S. … READ MORE >
Job openings and manufacturing data deepen concerns over growth and inflation
Manufacturing activity and sentiment contracted again after two months of modest expansion mostly because of the impact of anticipated tariffs on orders and prices. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Remittances to Mexico from the U.S.
The economic interdependence between the U.S. and Mexico is significant and unwinding it will be painful on both sides of the border. … READ MORE >