One of the major differences between the United States and China in the current trade conflict is that the Chinese economy is ensnared in a long-term deleveraging crisis in its real estate markets. The Chinese Real Estate Climate Index, released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, stands at ... READ MORE >
USA
Supply chain issues limit growth among major data center hyperscalers
Supply chain constraints are limiting revenue growth among the largest U.S. data center developers—known as hyperscalers—and threatening the United States’ progress in artificial intelligence innovation, according to recent company earnings calls. A limited supply of chips, electricity and land underlies ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Complacency in markets understates growing risk
The investment grade corporate bond spread, which recently fell to its lowest level since 1997, indicates that investors are sanguine about risk across asset markets. This lack of concern is showing up in other measures of risk as well: Moody’s investment grade less 10-year yield, our preferred ... READ MORE >
Volatility in markets: Hedging risk in an era of growing uncertainty
Consumer spending, private business investment and government expenditures have kept the economy growing above potential over the past few years. Yet both business investment and the pace of hiring have recently been decelerating back into line with a more modest pace of growth. This is the normal ... READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of Feb. 17, 2025
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here's the latest. Biotech CEOs discuss the highs and lows of a successful IPO Speaking at a conference last week, CEOs of three biotechs that closed initial public offerings in 2024 spoke about the process of managing an IPO ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Rebar prices and dying disinflation
Over the past two years, disinflation in the price of goods, and, in some cases, outright deflation allowed the economy to avoid a recession and for unemployment to decline into what is widely acknowledged as full employment. But this relative price stability is now at risk with the prospect of 25% ... READ MORE >
Initial claims rise slightly as federal layoffs and wildfire impact was muted
The number of initial claims for jobless benefits rose slightly to 219,000 last week, close to our forecast and the pre-pandemic average of 218,000. New claims have trended lower since last August as the 13-week moving average touched 218,000 after peaking at 235,000, a sign that the labor market ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Soft economic landing at risk
The Federal Reserve is on the verge of achieving that rarest of economic feats: A soft landing. The rapid disinflation that the Fed has engineered over the past two years mirrors that of the 1990s—the last time the central bank achieved such a difficult feat. That disinflation set the stage for a ... READ MORE >
4 key themes from Bank Director’s Acquire or Be Acquired 2025 conference
Bank Director’s 2025 Acquire or Be Acquired conference in January brought professionals from financial institutions together for an update on the economic landscape and to identify opportunities for growth and innovation. RSM attended the conference and was one of its sponsors. Here are the top themes ... READ MORE >
Housing starts plunge amid severe weather and elevated mortgage rates
Housing starts pulled back in January following a spike in December. The number of starts in January declined by 9.8%, driven by declines in both single-family and multifamily homes. December’s figure was revised upward to 16.1%. The data suggests that the decline was not just a normal pullback from ... READ MORE >