The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >
USA
Global economic outlook for 2025: Modest growth amid trade tensions
Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast. … READ MORE >
Fed cuts rates as it signals a prudent pause to assess policy uncertainty
The Federal Reserve reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
Housing starts fall below estimates as permits rebound
The recent levels of starts and permits do not suggest enough future supply to meet the growing demand of American households to keep home prices under control. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What the Treasury yield curve is saying about the economy
Normally, yields would be expected to fall at a time when the Fed is cutting rates. But uncertainty over the economy and the probability of inflation’s decline stalling at 2.6% to 2.8% have helped push up yields. … READ MORE >
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
Although a blanket tariff by the U.S. on all Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize in the first half of 2025, there is still cause for concern as selective U.S. tariffs are possible and would be disruptive to both countries’ economies. To illustrate this, look at energy and auto manufacturing — Canada’s industries with the highest exports to the U.S. … READ MORE >
Rising demand helps U.S. retail sales top forecasts
Retail sales topped forecasts in November, growing at a robust pace for the third month in a row. … READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
Should the inflation risk premium continue to rise, investors should anticipate that longer-term Treasury yields will move higher in tandem. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
Tariff discussions in health care and life sciences industries stoke global supply chain concerns
The health care and life sciences industries could be facing significant changes under a second Trump administration. From the prospect of new tariffs to the likelihood that the BIOSECURE Act will be enacted, companies are scrambling to adjust to what could be a changed operating environment. Already, the prospect of … … READ MORE >