A look at the spread between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in comparison with the Treasury term premium implies room for further easing in long-term yields. Our forecast calls for the 10-year yield to average 4.5% this year, trading between 4.3% and 4.7% and testing 5%. Through Feb. 10, ... READ MORE >
USA
Inflation accelerates in January amid concerns about rising expectations
Strong aggregate demand driven by job gains and rising real wages that in turn supported robust demand for services, rents and energy resulted in a 0.5% increase in the top-line consumer price index in January and a 0.4% advance in core inflation. A year-ago basis, the index increased by 3% and core ... READ MORE >
Market minute: The problem of sticky and stubborn inflation
The consumer price index for January, which will be released this morning, will most likely reaffirm that service sector inflation remains sticky and stubborn amid strong job and wage gains that are the primary drivers of aggregate demand. While housing inflation is easing, owners’ equivalent rent ... READ MORE >
Consumer products M&A update: Rebound remains out of reach
The long-awaited rebound in consumer products deal volume remained out of reach in the second half of last year, according to data compiled from PitchBook, as themes that have remained consistent over the previous year continue to affect transaction activity. Uncertainty surrounding the direction of ... READ MORE >
Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs turn uncertainty into concern for Canada
It took less than a week for the uneasy pause in trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. to reignite after U.S. President Donald Trump announced steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The 25 per cent tariff, which is set to take effect on March 12, includes products from Canada — the largest ... READ MORE >
Market minute: Foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury issuance
This week the federal government will issue $366 billion in debt, much of which will be purchased by foreign investors. The combination of growth and interest rate differentials, as well as rapidly changing fiscal and trade policies that favor a stronger dollar and the purchase of dollar-denominated ... READ MORE >
The NFL is the undisputed king of advertising
The advertising landscape has undergone significant transformation in recent years, largely driven by the industry's efforts to decouple from its historical ties to real GDP. However, amidst all the change, certain fundamentals remain constant. One of the most powerful and enduring strategies in ... READ MORE >
NIH adopts new policy for funding research
The National Institutes of Health's announcement that it would slash funding that covers overhead costs in research to a 15% maximum poses a grave risk to basic medical research in the United States. This policy, effective immediately, puts at risk public and private organizations engaged in pioneering ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Inflation expectations at risk
Well-anchored inflation expectations, based on the Federal Reserve's credibility over the past five decades, played a large part in the central bank surviving the great price and interest rate shocks of 2021. But given the considerable policy uncertainty caused by the return of global trade ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell amid inflation concerns from trade war
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 67.8 in February, the lowest level since July, as sentiment of both current and future conditions deteriorated. The impact of recent announcements on tariffs was evident in the report as inflation expectations for the next 12 months spiked to ... READ MORE >