Three months ago, in the week before the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in the current cycle, the bond market was pricing in a two-year yield of 3.58%. The two-year yield has since risen to 4.23%, an increase of 65 basis points at a time when the Fed is cutting interest rates. Two-year yields are ... READ MORE >
USA
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
A blanket tariff by the U.S. on Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize early next year despite rhetoric from U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. Still, the mere prospect of new tariffs has caused considerable anxiety in Canada. Such a move would have dire economic implications on both ... READ MORE >
Rising demand helps U.S. retail sales top forecasts
Retail sales topped forecasts in November, growing at a robust pace for the third month in a row. Sales at retail and online stores increased by 0.7%, according to the Census Bureau on Tuesday. Car sales were behind the increase, yet sales also looked strong in other key components. The control ... READ MORE >
Inflation risk premium suggests higher yields ahead
As the yield on the 10-year Treasury advances toward 4.5%—which is our baseline forecast for next year—the inflation risk premium is supporting that move. The inflation risk premium is the compensation that investors demand for the possibility that inflation may rise, or fall, and that premium is ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
Ahead of this week’s policy decision by the Federal Open Market Committee and the publication of the November personal consumption expenditures price index, a look at the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate is in order. In the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections released in September, that ... READ MORE >
Tariff discussions in health care and life sciences industries stoke global supply chain concerns
The health care and life sciences industries could be facing significant changes under a second Trump administration. From the prospect of new tariffs to the likelihood that the BIOSECURE Act will be enacted, companies are scrambling to adjust to what could be a changed operating ... READ MORE >
American household net worth sets record, bringing debt-to-asset ratio to 50-year low
American household net worth reached a record in the third quarter, rising to nearly $170 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve on Thursday. The primary driver of this increase was rising equity prices, which added $2.8 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of significant ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: A rate cut, followed by a prudent pause
We expect the Federal Reserve to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Dec. 18. Given current growth and inflation dynamics, we expect that the Fed’s rate cuts will then be on pause until March at the ... READ MORE >
5 things to know in life sciences: Week of December 9, 2024
Each week we highlight five things affecting the life sciences industry. Here's the latest. FTC appointments possibly signal decreased scrutiny on biopharma M&A President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Andrew Ferguson and Mark Meador to the Federal Trade Commission signals a potential shift ... READ MORE >
Asset management firms are optimistic on Q3 earnings calls as private asset demand rises
Optimism was a major theme in asset management firms’ third-quarter earnings calls, transcripts show. Firms mostly focused on increasing inflows and fee revenues, as well as growing their assets under management in Q3; some even reported the best results in their history. Driving the optimistic ... READ MORE >