• Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
  • Canada
  • United Kingdom
  • Subscribe
  • facebook
  • instagram
  • RSS
  • RSMUS.com

The Real Economy Blog

Search

  • Economics
  • Technology
  • Consumer
  • Industrials
  • Finance
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Life Sciences
Home > Economics > Hiring expected to slow in September jobs report

Hiring expected to slow in September jobs report

Oct. 3, 2019 by Joseph Brusuelas

  • email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linkedin

The labor market is expected to continue to lose steam in September, with the total change in employment likely increasing by 115,000 jobs on the month, and the unemployment rate likely rising to 3.8%. Given the slowdown in domestic manufacturing activity and goods production, we note there is downside risk to our top line forecast when the report is released on Friday; the uncertainty linked to the direction of trade policy may exact a larger price on hiring across goods producing and manufacturing jobs than our model implies. Beneath the headline, we expect a gain of 0.3% in average hourly earnings on the month, and 3.2% on a year-ago basis. There may also be a possible downward revision to the August estimate of an increase of 130,000 jobs.

We do not anticipate a large increase in census hiring on the month, nor do we expect the General Motors strike to influence the estimate on manufacturing or on the top-line number. Since the strike started on Sept. 16, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reference week for the month of September ended on Sept. 14, the strike should not be reflected in the monthly labor count. If the work stoppage continues through the October reference week (ending Oct. 12), forward-looking investors and policymakers will observe the impact of the strike in the October employment report on the first Friday in November.

For the past several months, hiring in the education and health care ecosystems has supported overall service hiring. We expect that to slow, which will create conditions for a second straight month of total private sector hiring below 100,000 jobs in September. The notable slowdown in the ISM manufacturing employment sub index to 46.3, and new export orders to 41, denotes some risk to the overall monthly estimate due to weakness in goods production, manufacturing, trade and transport ecosystems

  • email
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linkedin

Related posts

  • September jobs report: Mixed hiring data with stagnant wages

    The U.S. economy is slowing and job creation continues to ease along with overall economic activity. Given the recent readings of the manufacturing sector, which is in recession, and a service sector that has slowed noticeably, forward-looking investors,…

  • August hiring slows: Jobs report shows unflattering shape of things to come

    August hiring slowed to 130,000 jobs, reflecting late-cycle business dynamics and the impact of the trade war that is now spilling over into the real economy. After adjusting for Census Bureau hiring the top-line hiring increase was only…

  • Jobs report clunker puts June rate cut on the table

    An interest rate cut at the June 19 Federal Reserve meeting is now on the table as firms pulled back significantly on hiring in May. The weak hiring report is likely due to the uncertainty tax linked to…

Filed Under: Economics, x-Featured Tagged With: employment report, jobs, labor

About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

Primary Sidebar

Other Regions

  • Canada
  • United Kingdom

Categories

  • Economics
  • Technology
  • Consumer Products
  • Industrials
  • Financial Services
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Life Sciences

Recent Economics articles

  • FOMC meeting: Fed adds to debate on further fiscal aid Jan. 27, 2021
  • Economic recovery drives up raw material prices Jan. 27, 2021
  • CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. durable goods orders rise for eighth straight month Jan. 27, 2021

RSMUS.com links

The Real Economy

Middle Market Business Index

MMBI Special Reports

Footer

  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • RSS

About The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog from RSM US LLP was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

© 2021 RSMUS.com | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy

The Real Economy Blog
  • Economics
  • Technology
  • Consumer
  • Industrials
  • Finance
  • Real Estate
  • Health Care
  • Life Sciences