The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. The insured unemployment rate represents the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force. This ... READ MORE >
jobs
Canada jobs: Canadian economy surprises again, regional disparities remain, outlook uncertain
New jobs data on Friday showed that the Canadian economy added another 952,900 jobs in the month of June, exceeding expectations by a large margin. High frequency and alternative indicators of economic activity such as restaurant bookings, public transportation use and traffic congestion levels had predicted a large increase, as had some traditional measures ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies have processed 45.7 million first-time claims for ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, and continuing claims advanced by 20.5 million for ... READ MORE >
Surprise increase in jobs, but some worrying signs for the Canadian economy
The Canadian economy is coming back on line and appears to have bottomed out--at least for now. Social distancing measures have been eased; real time and high frequency indicators like traffic levels, public transportation use and restaurant bookings have increased. Canada added 289,600 jobs in the month of May, when economists had expected a decline of ... READ MORE >
Tech jobs have not been spared in the pandemic, but growth of remote work helps some
Before COVID-19, unemployment in the technology sector was at a five-decade low and was far lower than the overall U.S. unemployment rate. Though unemployment has risen for some parts of the technology sector as the pandemic has gripped the country, companies are still hiring for other roles. Job postings for web developers and applications software ... READ MORE >
US February jobs report–the last waltz before more sobering data
Policymakers and investors should take one last good look at the February U.S. employment data because it effectively represents the end of the multi-year string of strong monthly jobs reports. From here on in, the focus will shift to weekly first-time initial jobless claims and filings for unemployment insurance. The economy generated 273,000 jobs in ... READ MORE >
Closer look at monthly jobs data shows the glass only half full
The decade-long recovery from the Great Recession reveals some cracks in the glass. The monthly change in non-farm payrolls is closely followed by financial markets and is often the catalyst for outsized market moves. We say that because the payroll series is volatile, with a 1960-2020 average change of 184,000 jobs per month (when the economy is not in ... READ MORE >
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. This is the twenty-first month in a ... READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The GM strike distorted the October U.S. employment report, resulting in a net gain of 128,000 in total jobs. Investors will hang an asterisk on the October report--42,000 jobs linked to the strike and a 17,000 job decline in census workers. But once the damage caused by the strike is excluded, it appears the economy generated close to 187,000 new jobs, ... READ MORE >