The U.S. labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow for the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. The surge in job openings—which hit a two-year high—and the elevated ... READ MORE >
jobs
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.0% for February is likely an undercount of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. While the topline change in net employment after adding in back revisions was 1.072 million, it will likely be later in 2022 before the economy returns to full ... READ MORE >
March jobs report blows past expectations with best still to come
An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report. The labor market added 916,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 6% from 6.2%. After adding in the 156,000-job upward revision to the January and February reports, the net change was an increase of 1.072 million ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. The insured unemployment rate represents the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force. This ... READ MORE >
Canada jobs: Canadian economy surprises again, regional disparities remain, outlook uncertain
New jobs data on Friday showed that the Canadian economy added another 952,900 jobs in the month of June, exceeding expectations by a large margin. High frequency and alternative indicators of economic activity such as restaurant bookings, public transportation use and traffic congestion levels had predicted a large increase, as had some traditional measures ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims are still six times higher than normal
We can add another 1.5 million Americans to the ranks of the newly unemployed. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 are six times higher than the five-year average of 240,000 prior to the coronavirus pandemic. And in the 13 weeks since the shutdown of the economy, state employment agencies have processed 45.7 million first-time claims for ... READ MORE >
Weekly initial jobless claims: Much-needed context as claims rise by 1.5 million
While the pace of first-time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, such an improvement is still akin to saying someone has turned down the heat in hell. It is clear that the U.S. labor market remains impaired as first-time jobless claims increased by 1.5 million for the week ending June 13, and continuing claims advanced by 20.5 million for ... READ MORE >
Surprise increase in jobs, but some worrying signs for the Canadian economy
The Canadian economy is coming back on line and appears to have bottomed out--at least for now. Social distancing measures have been eased; real time and high frequency indicators like traffic levels, public transportation use and restaurant bookings have increased. Canada added 289,600 jobs in the month of May, when economists had expected a decline of ... READ MORE >
Tech jobs have not been spared in the pandemic, but growth of remote work helps some
Before COVID-19, unemployment in the technology sector was at a five-decade low and was far lower than the overall U.S. unemployment rate. Though unemployment has risen for some parts of the technology sector as the pandemic has gripped the country, companies are still hiring for other roles. Job postings for web developers and applications software ... READ MORE >
US February jobs report–the last waltz before more sobering data
Policymakers and investors should take one last good look at the February U.S. employment data because it effectively represents the end of the multi-year string of strong monthly jobs reports. From here on in, the focus will shift to weekly first-time initial jobless claims and filings for unemployment insurance. The economy generated 273,000 jobs in ... READ MORE >