The June reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is a sign of good things to come with respect to hiring and spending in months ahead. The index increased to 127.3 in June from a revised up 120 in May. The topline index is traditionally interpreted as a forward-looking indicator of consumer spending and is very sensitive to employment ... READ MORE >
jobs
U.S. June employment report: Look for robust hiring above 750,000
We expect a total change in employment of 750,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the U.S. June employment report. The major economic narrative to emerge from the summer hiring reports will likely be that consumers are flush with cash and pivoting to demand services, which will bolster overall hiring during the summer months. Thus, the June ... READ MORE >
Labor market improvement is not a one-way street: jobless claims increase to 412,000
First-time jobless claims increased to 412,000 for the week ending June 12 from a revised 375,000 previously, the government said on Thursday. However, the top-line increase remains well below the 529,200 13-week moving average within the series, implying that conditions for further improvement remain intact. That being said, the recent six consecutive ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Job openings rose in the first quarter
The number of job openings and those who quit increased in the first three months of the year, pointing to a healthy demand for labor despite the subsequent disappointing employment report for April, according to government data released on Tuesday. There were more than 8.1 million U.S. job openings in March, a 20% increase over the number of openings ... READ MORE >
Clean energy infrastructure is key part of Biden’s jobs plan
Clean energy and climate change are central figures in the Biden administration’s $2 trillion American Jobs Plan infrastructure bill, released on March 31. As such, companies in the energy industry and related sectors need to pay close attention to what the bill could potentially mean for them. If signed into law as is, the plan would be a massive step ... READ MORE >
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The U.S. labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow for the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. The surge in job openings—which hit a two-year high—and the elevated ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.0% for February is likely an undercount of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. While the topline change in net employment after adding in back revisions was 1.072 million, it will likely be later in 2022 before the economy returns to full ... READ MORE >
March jobs report blows past expectations with best still to come
An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report. The labor market added 916,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 6% from 6.2%. After adding in the 156,000-job upward revision to the January and February reports, the net change was an increase of 1.072 million ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Continuing jobless claims data point to cracks in labor market
The insured unemployment rate increased to 10.6% for the week ending Aug. 1, which is above the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July estimate of 10.2%, implying August nonfarm payrolls may be less robust than expected. The insured unemployment rate represents the number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force. This ... READ MORE >
Canada jobs: Canadian economy surprises again, regional disparities remain, outlook uncertain
New jobs data on Friday showed that the Canadian economy added another 952,900 jobs in the month of June, exceeding expectations by a large margin. High frequency and alternative indicators of economic activity such as restaurant bookings, public transportation use and traffic congestion levels had predicted a large increase, as had some traditional measures ... READ MORE >