Billy Joel’s classic album from 1982, “The Nylon Curtain,” contained a variety of songs dedicated to issues of the time like post-Vietnam discontent in “Goodnight Saigon” and the cost of American deindustrialization in “Allentown.”
One of the lyrics inside “Allentown” reminds one to keep an eye on the unexamined foundation of our post-modern economy and to check our hubris at the door when it comes to the promise of artificial intelligence.
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Technologies that rely on helium or a sophisticated defense that depends upon rare earths should serve as a powerful reminder that the fabric of economic life is not purely a function of imagination, innovation and risk but relies upon the almost never acknowledged realities of power. As Joel sang in “Allentown”:
So, the graduations hang on the wall
But they never really helped us at all
No they never taught us what was real
Iron and coke, and chromium steel
The lesson learned about what was real in the fabric of life in the late 20th century provides a parable for the current disruptions in exports of key commodities like urea, ammonia, sulfur, helium and bromide that are embedded in the DNA of our modern economy in a way that is rarely recognized.
One of the lessons of the effective shutdown in exports of oil, natural gas, distillates, liquids and molecules out of the Persian Gulf is the role that those commodities play in everyday economic life.
It’s one thing for U.S. households and businesses to deal with increased prices for gasoline and diesel. But it’s another thing when it comes to feeding the world with the help of petroleum-based fertilizers.
About 7% of each barrel of crude oil goes to creating petrochemical feedstocks, which when placed in the soil create the chemical reactions needed to improve crop yields.
Asia, Europe and the United States rely on sulfur and urea from the Middle East. Both are critical to produce fertilizer, and sulfur is also used in the production of metal.
The price of sulfur and urea have been rising since January 2025, and the demand for sulfur was such that its price had already increased by roughly 240% before the spike this past February.
The takeaway
Wars always result in hard lessons learned. This one will be no different.
While the North American economy is more self-sufficient regarding oil and food supplies than its trade partners and competitors, the rarely spoken of molecules that are deeply embedded into the fabric of our lives and economies are nevertheless products whose origins and prices are set globally.
What we celebrate and what is real are rarely the same.
