Stress in the UK financial markets continued to ease as the general election draws closer. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures financial and economic risk surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 0.29 standard deviations above normal levels of implied stress. It marked the lowest level of risk in what ... READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
November employment: a boomer of a jobs report
Even after adjusting for striking GM workers returning to the workforce, labor market dynamics remain robust as the private sector generated 254,000 new jobs in November, fueled by a gain of 206,000 private service sector jobs. Total jobs gains in the month were 266,000; the unemployment rate was 3.5%, a 50-year low. This is the twenty-first month in a ... READ MORE >
ISM Manufacturing Index continues to contract
The October ISM Manufacturing Index continued to contract in October, though it improved to 48.3 from September's reading of 47.8, implying a modestly slower pace of contraction in domestic manufacturing sentiment. The forward-looking new orders index improved to 49.1 from 47.3. Both are in line with our RSM Manufacturing Outlook Index, which stands at ... READ MORE >
October US employment report: solid trend in hiring continues
The GM strike distorted the October U.S. employment report, resulting in a net gain of 128,000 in total jobs. Investors will hang an asterisk on the October report--42,000 jobs linked to the strike and a 17,000 job decline in census workers. But once the damage caused by the strike is excluded, it appears the economy generated close to 187,000 new jobs, ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains negative
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to anticipate a slowdown in production, remaining negative in October at -0.59 standard deviations below normal conditions for the manufacturing sector. This is a slight improvement from its September value of -0.79 standard deviations. The MOI is a composite index based on surveys of manufacturing ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index eases amid progress over Northern Ireland
The RSM Brexit Stress Index moved substantially lower after talks between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ireland’s Prime Minister Leo Varadkar were reported to offer options for the transition of Northern Ireland from the common market into Britain’s single market. Though details were still to be worked out, the positive developments allowed ... READ MORE >
Start watching initial jobless claims as economy slows
Signals implying the slow demise of the decade-long economic recovery include the rising number of claims for unemployment insurance benefits. While we do not believe there is imminent risk of an explosion in demand for first-time benefits, once the pace of firings rises above 250,000 it likely marks an important turning point late in the business ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index higher as global uncertainty hits home
The RSM Brexit Stress Index jumped in a week that included the European Union’s stark criticism of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal proposal and the equity markets' recognition of the adverse effects of disruptions to trade. The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European ... READ MORE >
Brexit stress gets reprieve due to Supreme Court ruling
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased slightly during the week, as Britain’s Supreme Court ordered the resumption of Parliament and restored some sort of order to the Brexit chaos. The composite index, which measures financial-market stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, closed the week at 1.20 standard deviations above ... READ MORE >
Economic growth is running out of steam, RSM data shows
The U.S. economy likely grew at a 2.0% yearly rate in July and August, a drop from the 2.3% yearly rate of U.S. real GDP growth in the first quarter, according to the RSM US Real GDP Index (see chart below). (The index is based on a subset of indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research.) So far the domestic economy has absorbed two ... READ MORE >