We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5% to 5.25% at its May 3 meeting, with changes in the Federal Open Market Committee statement that imply a possible pause in the rate hike campaign and a bias toward future tightening if inflation ... READ MORE >
Joe Brusuelas
Hiring cools in March as fears of a wage price spiral ease
The U.S. March employment report indicated that total jobs increased by 236,000, illustrating that hiring remains strong, albeit at a slower pace. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday report points toward easing concerns of a wage price spiral that underscores the direction of monetary policy as the Fed ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Policy rate moving higher as Fed may prepare to slow pace of price stability campaign
We expect the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% when it publishes its policy decision on Nov. 2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will almost surely utilize the press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to note that at one point it ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week
A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we expect the central bank will hike the policy rate by 75 basis points. The fourth boost to the lending rate this year will come amid clear signs of global and ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims decline ahead of expected delta-driven turbulence
First-time jobless claims declined to 348,000 for the week ending Aug. 14 from a previous upwardly revised 377,000. That decline should be put in the context of what we know lies ahead: seasonal distortions around the upcoming U.S. Labor Day holiday, expected volatility driven by the COVID-19 delta ... READ MORE >
Labor market improvement is not a one-way street: jobless claims increase to 412,000
First-time jobless claims increased to 412,000 for the week ending June 12 from a revised 375,000 previously, the government said on Thursday. However, the top-line increase remains well below the 529,200 13-week moving average within the series, implying that conditions for further improvement remain ... READ MORE >
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The U.S. labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow for the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. The surge in job ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Estimating unemployment during the pandemic
Friday’s headline U3 unemployment rate of 6.0% for February is likely an undercount of out-of-work people in the United States, not by design, but by the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic. While the topline change in net employment after adding in back revisions was 1.072 million, it will likely be ... READ MORE >
March jobs report blows past expectations with best still to come
An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report. The labor market added 916,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 6% from 6.2%. After adding in the 156,000-job upward revision to the January and February ... READ MORE >
Government transfers fuel robust income and spending: Incomes ex-transfers illustrate need for additional stimulus
Government transfers from the end-of-year $908 billion fiscal aid package were the primary catalyst for the 10% increase in income and the 2.4% jump in spending, a robust kickoff to what is going to be one of the more memorable years in economic activity in decades. The personal savings rate increased to ... READ MORE >