In economic terms, the two-week ceasefire in Iran will come down to the number of ships that sail through the Strait of Hormuz in either direction.
During the first two days of the ceasefire, it candidly does not look positive.
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Before the outbreak of the war, there were about 135 ships per day traveling in both directions through the Strait of Hormuz. That included nearly 50 oil and gas tankers passing through the strait daily in February.
That resulted in roughly 17 million to 20 million barrels of oil per day in addition to 3.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
According to Bloomberg, 14 sailings to Asia took place in the week ending April 9, while two sailings were reported going to destinations west of the Persian Gulf.
This matches up with the dependency of Asia on petroleum supplies out of the Middle East relative to reports of Europe looking more to supplies in the North Sea.
The price of Brent crude has dropped from nearly $118 per barrel to just less than $100 since the ceasefire took hold.
The spot price for dated Brent crude or the physical delivery price on April 9 was $131.78.
Should the negotiations in Pakistan over the weekend not result in a period of non-conflict, we would expect a move in the former back toward $120 and the latter to $145, which would result in an intensification of fuel shortages across Asia.
