Professional investors often focus on inflation expectations, which is understandable given the role it plays in determining actual inflation. But there is far less focus on consumer expectations around credit availability.
Despite a strong jobs market and rising real wages, expectations around the provision of credit remain low.
The data for expectations around credit availability over the next year strongly implies that consumers do not anticipate much improvement in credit as interest rates and inflation remain elevated.
This is almost certainly an unstated cause of why recent surveys of consumer confidence have turned sour.
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations contains a rich data set of expectations around inflation, interest rates and credit availability that is organized around key demographics that provide insight into the condition of the consumer.
Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.
