The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index continues to improve, with September’s results the fourth month of a developing uptrend. Three of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys reported increased activity during the month, while the Philadelphia and Kansas City regions reported significant ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
The economics of another U.S. government shutdown
The impasse over funding the federal government involves a small group of 20 hardliners in the House of Representative majority who are making demands reminiscent of 2018, when the government shut down for approximately five weeks. The traditional 12 annual appropriations bills that account for ... READ MORE >
Don’t believe the hype: Student loan payments present modest drag on growth
The restarting of student loan repayments will not cause a large drag on overall spending or economic growth in the final quarter of the year. Despite the hype and scare tactics around a well-telegraphed restart date, we estimate that it will result in only a 0.3 percentage point drag on gross ... READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: No rate hike as Fed implies soft landing
The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% on Wednesday while revisions to its Summary of Economic Projections strongly imply that the central bank no longer expects a recession, which it did just six months ago, and is increasingly confident of a soft landing in the ... READ MORE >
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
The pandemic has spurred profound changes in the global economy like a tight labor market and elevated inflation that policymakers are only beginning to understand. But one result is clear: The days of historically low interest rates are over. Now, policymakers are wrestling with the question of ... READ MORE >
Why the Fed should lift its 2% inflation target
We think that the Federal Reserve’s current cycle of rate hikes has peaked at a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. While inflation stands well above the Fed’s official 2% target, we think that because of the economic and political shocks since the pandemic, the Fed will raise its inflation target in the ... READ MORE >
Potential impact of UAW strike would not be sufficient to cause recession
The threat of a strike among the 146,000 United Auto Workers at the so-called Big Three automakers of Ford, General Motors and Stellantis puts at risk half a billion dollars per day in an economy that generates more than $26.7 trillion in goods and services each year, or more than $73 billion per ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions and the cost of doing business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Rising interest rates have taken a toll on the middle market businesses that make up America's real economy. Yet demand for labor remains strong, consumers continue to spend and inflation is easing. How to make sense of the cross-currents in America's real economy? Join RSM Chief Economist Joe ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Labor market continues to cool
Cooler air permeating the nights as summer comes to an end is a perfect metaphor for an American labor market easing from the historically tight conditions of the past few years. In August, the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs and the unemployment rate settled in at 3.8%, according to Labor Department ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Signs of a bottom
The decline in the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index appears to be nearing a bottom. We think that the mild recession in the manufacturing sector is approaching its end. The nascent manufacturing construction boom will soon translate into robust new orders and we think that a policy-induced tailwind will ... READ MORE >