Those who are making the case that U.S. industrial production has bottomed may want to rethink that overly optimistic statement. While auto production will undoubtedly rebound in November, the problems at Boeing surrounding the 737 Max and the uncertainty tax imposed on firms caused by the trade conflict with China have knocked the air out of domestic ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. retail sales grew at a healthy 0.3% in October
The U.S. household continues to demonstrate strength through domestic retail sales, though at a decelerating pace. The October increase of 0.3 percent in top-line retail sales and the control estimate that feeds into the calculation of domestic gross domestic product reaffirm that the consumer remains on a solid footing heading into the critical holiday ... READ MORE >
RSM Brexit Stress Index ends tumultuous week slightly higher
Stress in the financial markets pushed a bit higher during a tumultuous week that included the European Union granting an extension of the Brexit deadline to Jan. 31 and Parliament granting Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s wish for a December general election. The RSM Brexit Stress Index, which measures stress surrounding Britain’s impending departure from ... READ MORE >
Q3’19 GDP: Consumer keeps economy from drifting toward stall speed
Overall economic activity in the third quarter continued to decelerate with the top-line estimate indicating a 1.9% increase in growth and a 2% gain on a year-ago basis. Real final sales clocked in at a 2% increase as did final sales to domestic purchasers and gross domestic purchases. Digging through the depths of the government’s report, it appears that ... READ MORE >
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on moves to curtail abrupt withdrawal from EU
The RSM Brexit Stress Index eased again this week, as Parliament took additional steps to prevent a reckless exit from the European Union. The index fell to 1.24 standard deviations above normal levels of stress at market close on Friday, down from 1.42 a week earlier. Though still high, this suggests an improvement from the dire conditions of just two weeks ... READ MORE >
Fed loses patience, sets tone for potential rate cuts
The Federal Reserve set the predicate for a shift in policy to an accommodative stance later this year by revising downward its forecast on inflation and its estimate on the path of rate policy. In our estimation, monetary policy is too tight, given the deceleration in the domestic economy, low inflation, contraction in global manufacturing in train, and ... READ MORE >