There are signs that the business cycle has made a turn, bottoming out of a deep recession and moving into its next phase of sustained economic growth. As such, we have recently upgraded our forecast for 2021 real GDP growth to 7.5% (7.2% previously) on a year-over-year basis, a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% (4.5% previously) and an increase in ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Labor market update: Signs of normalization as long-term challenges persist
The U.S. labor market is showing signs of optimism that might best be described as hedging its bets—confident that the vaccination program will eventually allow for the reemergence of the normal workplace, but recognizing that it may not take just a snap of the fingers to get there. The surge in job openings—which hit a two-year high—and the elevated ... READ MORE >
Reimagining redevelopment and innovation: A U.S. infrastructure bank
A confluence of events over the past four decades has created an opportunity to rethink how and where the government and private sector invest. Long-neglected investment needs have resulted in an antiquated American infrastructure that is not aligned with the needs of private industry, the public sector or the direction of the digital economy. As a ... READ MORE >
Understanding what is involved in a $2 trillion infrastructure project
The latest report card on the nation’s infrastructure from the American Society of Civil Engineers confirms what just about everyone already knows: It’s old, it’s broken and it doesn’t work anymore. To address this gap, the Biden administration has proposed spending roughly $2 trillion over the next decade. Among the initiatives are $621 billion for ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Rational exuberance and the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index
The manufacturing sector is signaling extreme confidence in a rapid end to the pandemic-induced economic shutdown and to the global manufacturing recession that preceded it. From our vantage point, this reaffirms our robust growth outlook of a 7.2% economic expansion for this year and our expectation that one million jobs will have been added to total ... READ MORE >
March employment preview: Expect a gain of 1 million jobs
Not too long ago, we estimated that the economy would generate roughly 625,000 jobs per month this year as vaccines gained broad distribution and the economy reopened. Now, with the vaccines available to most adults and economic activity returning, the economy is poised for even stronger growth. When the Labor Department releases its jobs data for ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index improves even as the economy lags behind
The U.K. public appears to be winning its race with the pandemic. Newly reported cases of COVID-19 infections have plunged since January’s post-holiday surge and are now averaging 5,200 per day. The number of deaths has dipped as well, to 62 per day. These are encouraging signs that the public has taken safety measures to heart. The decline in cases ... READ MORE >
Closing Canada’s output gap with a little help from its friends
The developed economies of the world are on the verge of recovery, the pace of which will depend on how fast vaccinations are administered and when confidence in personal interaction is restored. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest economic outlook put it succinctly: While the global recovery is in sight, there is “a long ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Unexpected risk and a blocked Suez Canal
Just when we thought everything was gonna be all right – global vaccinations are on the rise along with forecasts for the global economy – a shortage of microchips threatens the automobile industry and a container ship gets stuck in the Suez Canal, threatening the global supply chain. It’s always safe to assume that an unexpected event will occur, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Manufacturing sector leading the way out of recession
The economic downturn caused by the pandemic has had many unusual dynamics, and one of these is that the manufacturing sector, along with housing, is leading the way to recovery. The recovery in manufacturing began as early as last September, when annual sales growth in the sector turned positive. More recently, January’s sales rose by 7% annually, a ... READ MORE >