Our baseline forecast for the American economy next year calls for a mild recession by the second half of the year as the impact of higher interest rates sets in. For some time, our forecast has included a 65% probability of recession over the next 12 months. Next year, we expect a 0.1% decline in ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
Expectations that wage growth would slow were dashed inside the U.S. jobs report for November as average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. The primary policy takeaway from the report is that the Federal ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Sentiment sours even as activity remains stout
Manufacturing sentiment continued to decline in November, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, driven by notable decelerations in the Philadelphia and Dallas regions. Firms in the New York, Richmond and Kansas City regions reported slight improvements over last month, though they ... READ MORE >
The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. The hyper-globalization that has dominated the global economy over the past 30 years is giving way to an era of regionalization that is radically altering the flow of ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions update: Rising risks and tightening markets
Despite a strong bounce in U.S. financial markets following better-than-anticipated inflation data for October, financial conditions remain tight. The risk to the economic outlook has not abated after one month of encouraging consumer price index data. Central banks continue to increase the cost of ... READ MORE >
How high will interest rates go?
As the Federal Reserve struggles to tame inflation, the central bank is raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions in what we think is a regime change that will increase the cost of both public and private debt and curb growth. We expect the Fed to raise its policy rate above 5% in ... READ MORE >
When will inflation slow? Pay attention to housing.
A correction in the housing market as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs is underway. While overall price growth has cooled, though, the housing components inside the two inflation reports—the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—have shown no signs of ... READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
Inflation in the U.S. economy is approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability and households can begin seeing possible relief from a deterioration in real income. The October consumer price index, which rose by 0.4% ... READ MORE >
Uncertainty, policy choices and the prospects for middle market investment
Stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates are creating a pervasive sense of uncertainty among business owners and investors that has left policymakers with few good options. But with the right targeted measures that encourage businesses to make productivity-enhancing investments, ... READ MORE >
U.S. October jobs report: Strong growth as labor market remains tight
Even after a sharp increase in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate over the past 10 months, an inversion of the yield curve and a significant dislocation in equity and fixed-income markets, there is scant evidence of any slack in the American jobs market. The jobs report for October did not alter that ... READ MORE >