Over the past quarter century, the total number of people working in manufacturing has declined by 4.63 million, from a peak of 17.32 million in July 2000 to 12.69 million today.
During that time, there has been a 25% decline in nondurable manufacturing employment and a 28% drop in durables despite a nominal $1.7 trillion increase in added-value manufacturing—think rising productivity—during that time.
Since the launch of the latest trade war in April, total manufacturing employment fell by 72,000 through the end of 2025 as the average effective tariff increased from approximately 2% to 14% through mid-November.
Of those jobs lost, 58,000 were in the higher-paying durable goods firms—which produce goods that last at least three years—with the remainder lost in nondurable goods.
When the January Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of total change in employment is published, it will be accompanied by a benchmark revision.
Given trade tensions and ongoing unpredictability around tariffs, the underlying condition of manufacturing will be one barometer to ascertain the success of efforts to rebalance global trade in favor of the domestic manufacturing complex.
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