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Market Minute: The upcoming benchmark revisions to jobs data

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Annual benchmark revisions over the past 10 years have had an absolute average of 0.2% of total nonfarm employment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This year, the final benchmark revision, which was originally scheduled to be released on Feb. 6, will now be issued on Feb. 11 because of the latest U.S. government shutdown.

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While most benchmark revisions are large on a nominal basis and confusing to the public, they are small compared to the 164 million people who have jobs based on the BLS establishment survey.

The BLS preliminary estimate of the national benchmark revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 was a downward revision of 911,000 jobs (a decline of 0.6%). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell estimated a decrease of 600,000, or roughly 0.4% by our calculation. We think that figure will be closer to 720,000.

In addition, based on recent labor data and our assessment of the upcoming benchmark, we are reducing our estimate of the January jobs report to 30,000 from our initial forecast of 60,000 with risk of a weaker print.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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