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Market Minute: U.S. heavy truck sales point to slowing economy

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One of the better barometers of the U.S. economy is production and sales of heavy trucks.

This data, to be released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, contains important forward-looking information on industrial production, housing construction and U.S. consumer demand that is profoundly cyclical.

Both are slowing ahead of the shocks linked to tariffs and what will be further declines in demand by households and commercial ventures, the data shows.

Heavy truck sales and production in U.S.

As for sales of autos and light trucks, which get more attention, expect April’s data to show brisk demand near 17.2 million vehicles at an annualized pace—compared to the 15.8 million before the onset of the trade war—when the data is released early next month.

This strength, though, will only be temporary because businesses and consumers have been pulling forward purchases to avoid higher trade taxes. Once the tariffs are in place, it will be a different story.

Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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