We expect an increase of 50,000 jobs in the delayed September U.S. jobs report when it is released on Thursday, which will illustrate sagging private-sector demand.
The internals of the report will show diminished demand for labor in higher-paying industries as the economy struggles to produce the 50,000 jobs necessary to keep American labor conditions stable.
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But we anticipate upward revisions to both the July and August estimates, which will push the total increase in employment to near 100,000 jobs in the report.
Should the September estimate show solid upward revisions, it will most likely further dampen expectations of any prospective rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.
The unemployment rate will remain steady at 4.3% in September.
We want to note that this estimate was made before the spate of corporate layoffs, the arrival of DOGE-inspired layoffs and the buyouts of government employees and some furloughed workers during the government shutdown that will combine to send the unemployment rate temporarily to 4.7% in October.
The composition of hiring will remain dependent upon health care and education, with broad weakness continuing in manufacturing, goods production, construction, wholesale trade and professional business services.
