There has been something of an overwrought discussion about youth unemployment. We looked at the average unemployment rate of workers who are 20 to 24 during expansions since 1990, and the data confirms our conjecture.
The current unemployment rate of these younger workers stands at 8.6%, below the 9.1% during the first two economic expansions following the end of the Cold War and the onset of globalization. The 8.6% rate is also well below the 10.9% that followed the financial crisis.
Yes, 8.6% is well above the current 4.4% overall jobless rate, but it looks to be well within a normal range of the past four business cycles.
Perhaps the national economic discussion is more about the 9.3% unemployment rate among 20- to 24-year-old college graduates, which from our point of view is a bit misguided.
If a recent Princeton graduate is unemployed, it is a national policy concern. If a local high school grad is unemployed, then it is his problem.
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The data does not lie: The jobs market may be expanding at a modest pace, but the fruits of this expansion or any other are never distributed proportionately. It’s the dynamic economy at work.
Younger workers who need time to develop skills and professional networks benefit least during expansions. But if one looks at the unemployment rate of workers 25 and older through September, that jobless rate stands at 3.3%, which implies economic benefits accrued to those who work hard as well as carefully and manage their careers thoughtfully.
