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Morning market minute: Trucking firms at risk amid trade tensions

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containerAs trade tensions have mounted in recent weeks, most of the focus has been on agriculture, autos and aviation, three industries that rely on integrated supply chains involving Mexico, Canada and China.

Yet one area that should not be overlooked is trucking and transportation, which would take a hit should large trade taxes result in diminished demand and a reduced volume of goods crossing borders.

Russell 2000 trucking

In this case, it is not the large firms that will be hit first. Rather, it will be the small and medium sized trucking and transportation firms that will see a near-term decline in revenues.

Container volume at LA port

Whatever one thinks of the current trade tiff initiated by the U.S., a close look at supply chains will be part of a broader risk matrix over the next few years.

For more insights on the economy and the middle market, read the latest issue of The Real Economy from RSM US.

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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