Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. This will appear in the forecast table as a 0.10% estimate. But we ... READ MORE >
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Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
Initial jobless claims jumped to 242,000 for the week ending June 8 from 229,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The latest figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. It ... READ MORE >
GDP and inflation grew slower than earlier estimates
Softer overall demand and inflation in the first quarter should be more of a relief for the Federal Reserve and the market rather than a concern. Most of the downward revision to gross domestic product data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday came from consumer spending, partly because of ... READ MORE >
Consumer inflation expectations moderate in May
The University of Michigan reported on Friday that consumer sentiment and inflation expectations improved in the second half of May. This may be welcome news after the Federal Reserve seemed less sure about whether interest rates were sufficiently restrictive or not. The effect of high interest rates ... READ MORE >
Canada’s inflation fell to 2.7%, bolstering case for June rate cut
Canada's consumer price index report for April offers a clear message for the Bank of Canada: A rate cut in June is a no brainer. Headline inflation fell to 2.7 per cent, within the 1 per cent to 3 per cent range for the fourth month in a row and the lowest since early 2021, a full year before this ... READ MORE >
Forecasts show softer April PCE inflation
Details from April’s consumer price index and producer price index reports this week implied a slightly softer month for the personal consumption expenditures index. We think the top-line PCE inflation will most likely come in at 0.25% for April, down from 0.30% in March, while the core index will slow ... READ MORE >
Retail demand shows weakness, leading to first inflation dip in 6 months
In a noteworthy turn, core goods prices have experienced a continued decline, contributing to the first dip in inflation in six months, according to April’s consumer price index. April's retail sales data paints a picture of stagnation, hinting at a weakening consumer base grappling with high interest ... READ MORE >
CPI resumes disinflationary trend in April amid weakened retail sales
The drop in April’s consumer price index was a much-needed step in the right direction in the Federal Reserve's effort to tame inflation and provided hope for potential rate cuts this year. Retail sales, in another key report released on Wednesday, indicated a much weaker April, explaining the extended ... READ MORE >
U.S. consumer sentiment plunges on rising inflation
The sharp drop in consumer sentiment in May seems more like an overreaction to rising gasoline prices and overall inflation, rather than a reliable indicator for future spending. Inflation expectations rose sharply to 3.5% from 3.2% for the next 12 months while longer-term expectations inched up to ... READ MORE >
Senior Loan Officer Survey: Progress halts as inflation rebounds in Q1
Progress toward normalization in lending practices generally halted in the first quarter as the Federal Reserve turned more hawkish amid the rebound in inflation, according to data in a Fed report released on Monday. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices showed that demand ... READ MORE >