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RSM Brexit Stress Index eases on promise of soft departure from EU

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Probability for a hard Brexit is falling, data from RSM’s proprietary Brexit Stress Index shows.

The index eased to .41 from a high of .77 on March 8.

While the opposition Labour party put out a statement late Friday saying talks have stalled, the RSM Brexit Stress Index nevertheless eased somewhat on expectations that the UK government may be moving toward a soft Brexit and quite possibly a people’s vote on whatever agreement Parliament can pass. Prime Minister Theresa May is seeking an extension to June 30. The EU will consider the request next week, but prior indications suggest an extension is unlikely.

The FTSE 100 Index closed at 7447.87, up .61 percent. Corporate spreads and government spreads also narrowed, which bolstered confidence in the markets.

RSM Brexit Stress Index April 5 2019

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About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia. In December 2023, Brusuelas and the economics team were recognized on Bloomberg's list of Best Bond Forecasters after correctly predicting where the benchmark Treasury would end the year.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

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