The drop in job openings and the rebound in consumer confidence are consistent with a soft-landing scenario, which we believe has been the reality in recent months. While the lower number of job vacancies signaled reduced demand pressure in September, hirings improved while job quits continued to ... READ MORE >
consumer confidence
Job openings exceed forecasts as layoffs and quits reach multiyear lows
Job openings continued to point to strong labor demand, staying above forecast at 8.18 million in June. May’s number was also revised up to 8.23 million, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Tuesday. The data supported our forecast of another strong month of job gains in July when ... READ MORE >
Labor costs rise, complicating Fed’s decision on rate cuts
The employment cost index accelerated above expectations in the first quarter, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision of when to start cutting its policy rate. The index, a closely watched indicator of labor costs by the Fed, will almost certainly guarantee a more hawkish tone from the central ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy remained resilient in first quarter amid signs of future softening
The American economy continued to show resilience in the first quarter though signs of softening in the future emerged, according to data on durable goods and consumer confidence released Tuesday. In perhaps the most significant development on inflation, housing prices, a sticking point in the ... READ MORE >
Softer economic data reaffirms prospect of a soft landing
The Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary stance showed that it continues to affect the economy in the first two months of the year. In other words, the Fed is getting closer to its goal of achieving a soft landing when the economy cools back down to a sustainable level of growth with inflation under ... READ MORE >
Strong job openings and consumer confidence point to robust employment gains
December's strong data on job openings and consumer confidence released on Tuesday foreshadowed another robust month of job gains in January, aligning with our above-consensus estimate for net payroll increases when the employment report is released on Friday. Job openings in the United States inched ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence ends the year on a positive note
Consumer confidence rose in December to the highest level in five months as sentiment on both the current and future situations improved markedly. The data from the Conference Board released on Wednesday adds to a string of economic data in recent months that supports further sustained expansion in the ... READ MORE >
Consumer products holiday season insights: Fading consumer confidence won’t dampen holiday retail cheer
Despite numerous economic challenges, consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient. The U.S. Census Bureau’s release of September retail sales showed strong results, solidifying consumers’ willingness to spend. But with the holiday season approaching, it remains to be seen whether consumers will ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage inflation metric tops forecast
The employment cost index has been the Federal Reserve's top indicator for wage pressure on underlying inflation recently. That figure for the third quarter showed that labor costs rose 1.1% higher than the forecast of 1.0% and were higher than the pre-pandemic average of 0.6%. The hotter-than-expected ... READ MORE >
Housing prices set a record as consumer confidence dips
Economic data released on Tuesday added more mixed signals on the housing market in the wake of the wide fluctuations in mortgage rates over the past two months. At the same time, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in four months as expectations markedly deteriorated. To begin with, housing ... READ MORE >