The growth scare that rocked the market in early August looks premature after the release of new data on gross domestic product and jobless claims. Growth was stronger in the second quarter, revised up to 3.0%, than the first estimate, driven largely by a sharp upward revision to consumer spending, ... READ MORE >
consumer spending
U.S. gas prices poised to decline by 10% ahead of July 4
Traditionally, gasoline prices in the United States peak just ahead of the July 4 holiday as consumers get ready to hit the road and vacation season begins. But this year is shaping up to be a different story. Because of supply conditions and easing demand, domestic gasoline prices peaked at $3.67 per ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales in February grew at the fastest rate since September
Retail sales rebounded in February, showing that the sharp drop in January was likely more noise than trend, according to data from the Commerce Department on Thursday. Once the seasonal factors in January’s data faded away, overall spending at retail stores, restaurants and online remained solid ... READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Despite what you might read or hear, the stock market is not the economy. But that does not mean you should ignore the effect that the stock market has on household income and spending, the labor market, overall financial conditions and economic growth. A 2021 paper in the American Economic Review ... READ MORE >
U.S. income and spending see strong gains as year nears an end
This past year was a remarkable one in the American economy as inflation eased, employment gains remained rock solid and household consumption advanced at a robust pace. November’s personal income and spending report, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, showed a 0.4% monthly increase in ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fall in October
Government data for October's retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. While sales slowed, the data came in higher than expected. When considered with an upward revision to September's reading, October's retail sales indicated ... READ MORE >
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
The U.S. economy maintained its momentum in September with personal spending that was stronger than forecasted. But even with the booming consumer demand, inflation ticked up only slightly, driven largely by energy and travel service prices. Spending rose by 0.7% on the month, while the personal ... READ MORE >
Excess savings are critical to the economic expansion’s duration
The American economy has shown resilience in the face of rising interest rates as consumers, bolstered by excess savings built up during the pandemic, have continued to spend. But how long can these savings last? According to our analysis of revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ... READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
The U.S. economy ran hotter than expected in August even as the momentum in spending slowed down. Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than forecast, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. But the downward revisions to retail sales in the prior ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls to six-month low
Consumer confidence inched down in May to the lowest level in six months as sentiment on both the current economy and expectations weakened. More important, labor market sentiment fell to the lowest level in two years, signaling a potential significant slowdown in May's job gains. More data on the jobs ... READ MORE >