The American economy has shown resilience in the face of rising interest rates as consumers, bolstered by excess savings built up during the pandemic, have continued to spend. But how long can these savings last? According to our analysis of revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ... READ MORE >
consumer spending
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
The U.S. economy ran hotter than expected in August even as the momentum in spending slowed down. Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than forecast, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. But the downward revisions to retail sales in the prior ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls to six-month low
Consumer confidence inched down in May to the lowest level in six months as sentiment on both the current economy and expectations weakened. More important, labor market sentiment fell to the lowest level in two years, signaling a potential significant slowdown in May's job gains. More data on the jobs ... READ MORE >
Fed’s gauges on wages and inflation seal the deal on another rate hike
The Federal Reserve's key labor costs metric for the first quarter came in hotter than expected Friday, helping to seal the deal on the central bank's 10th consecutive rate hike in May, while raising the probability of another one in June. The Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% in the quarter, and the ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 the previous week, staying below the pre-pandemic level, according to government data released Thursday. Claims numbers have been consistently low recently, showing a resilient labor market where demand for labor ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment fell in March, before the financial turmoil
Consumer sentiment in March dropped to 63.4 from 67 as consumers’ confidence in the current economic conditions and their expectations both worsened on the month, according to the University of Michigan’s survey released Friday. The decline in sentiment, though, was not influenced by the ... READ MORE >
January’s spending shows a hot economy despite rate hikes
January’s data on inflation and spending came in hotter than expected on Friday, making the case that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates three more times and bring its peak policy rate to 5.5%. Rising prices and spending indicated that overall demand remained robust, which ... READ MORE >
American consumers grow more cautious as spending falls
American consumers pulled back on their spending for the second month in a row in December amid a continuing economic slowdown and elevated inflation. Also contributing to the decline were weak income growth and the decreasing stock of excess savings. Spending fell by 0.2% in dollar terms and by 0.3% ... READ MORE >
Spending holds strong as inflation moderates in October
Overall demand remained robust as holiday shopping kicked off in October, according to data on inflation, spending and income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. Spending rose by 0.8% while income increased by 0.7%. After adjusting for inflation, real spending rose by 0.5% ... READ MORE >
Consumer products holiday season insights: Thanksgiving holiday sees consumers continue to spend
Over the Thanksgiving weekend, consumers showed they are not yet ready to pull back on the robust spending that has driven economic activity over the last three years. Consumers equipped with $1.8 trillion of excess savings, compared with the first quarter in 2020 (approximately 80% held by the upper two ... READ MORE >