The American economy is poised to grow at or above the long-term 1.8% rate as the Fed begins its rate-cutting campaign, which should put a floor under growth and hiring. … READ MORE >
consumer spending
Second quarter GDP is revised higher amid stronger consumer spending
With price stability essentially achieved, a well-performing labor market should continue to be a significant tailwind for growth, especially for consumer spending, in the last two quarters of the year. … READ MORE >
U.S. gas prices poised to decline by 10% ahead of July 4
Because of supply conditions and easing demand, domestic gasoline prices peaked at $3.67 per gallon for regular on April 18 and have declined since then. They are poised to decline even further. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales in February grew at the fastest rate since September
Once the seasonal factors in January’s data faded away, overall spending at retail stores, restaurants and online remained solid as consumers continued to benefit from a strong labor market and growing incomes. … READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that the sharp rebound in equities last year contributed to an increase of roughly $900 billion in households’ stock wealth, or $288 billion in consumer spending. … READ MORE >
U.S. income and spending see strong gains as year nears an end
November had a 0.4% increase in nominal income and spending, while inflation-adjusted spending advanced at a 0.3% pace, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fall in October
The data for October’s retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. … READ MORE >
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
Friday’s data on spending and income, together with recent data on gross domestic product, have pointed to a booming economy that should push back any speculation for an imminent recession. … READ MORE >
Excess savings are critical to the economic expansion’s duration
According to our analysis of revised BEA data, consumers are on a strong footing, with between $400 billion and $1.3 trillion in excess savings that they can draw upon as the economy moves back toward price stability. … READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than expected, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. … READ MORE >