August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
core PCE
Spending cools more than expected as Fed contemplates rate cuts
American consumers pulled back in April as a sign of elevated interest rates weighing further on overall demand as fiscal spending from the pandemic wanes. The material slowdown of the labor market in April was also a key factor with income growth essentially unchanged on an inflation-adjusted ... READ MORE >
Forecasts show softer April PCE inflation
Details from April’s consumer price index and producer price index reports this week implied a slightly softer month for the personal consumption expenditures index. We think the top-line PCE inflation will most likely come in at 0.25% for April, down from 0.30% in March, while the core index will slow ... READ MORE >