This is the second article in a series examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The first article looks at the Paycheck Protection Program, and the third offers policy recommendations for responding to future crises. The inability of small ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Canada’s merchandise trade growth slows
After two consecutive months of strong growth, Canada’s exports leveled off in April while imports rose slightly, netting a surplus of CA$1.5 billion. While imports grew by 1.9% and exports were up by 0.6% in nominal terms, a closer look reveals that the increase came solely from rising prices, as ... READ MORE >
U.S. April Consumer Price Index: Peak inflation provides no solace
About the best one can say about the April inflation report is that year-over-year metrics appear to have topped while core inflation increased, and housing costs that are up 6.5% from a year ago are now a policy issue that needs to be addressed. The data inside the report reflects a shift in demand ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index: Bracing for more disruptions
Supply chain bottlenecks eased in March, but it won't be for long. Widespread lockdowns in China and prolonged geopolitical conflict in Ukraine will most likely assure another round of supply chain snarls ahead. Our RSM US Supply Chain Index rose 4.5% to 2.76 standard deviation below neutral. The ... READ MORE >
Consumers spent more in March despite rising inflation
American consumers defied rising inflation and market uncertainties in March, continuing to spend more on goods and services as their wages increased and they saved less. Personal spending rose by 0.2% in March on an inflation-adjusted basis, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in February. The ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Decelerating growth as tensions mount
The deceleration of manufacturing is now in its ninth month, with the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index signaling the potential for further economic moderation from rising prices and slowing demand. A deeper dive into the RSM survey suggests that geopolitical uncertainty and a resurgent ... READ MORE >
Canada’s GDP rises, led by construction and trade
Canada’s gross domestic product in January increased modestly by 0.2% from December as the effects of the omicron variant paused growth in the services sector. The gain came entirely from goods-producing industries, which increased by 0.8%, while the services-producing industries saw no growth because ... READ MORE >
What is the yield curve telling us?
Fears of an imminent recession are somewhat overblown. These fears are showing up in fixed-income markets, where investors are betting that the risk of a recession is rising as the economy absorbs a supply shock in the commodity and energy markets and as central banks increase interest rates. But ... READ MORE >
The housing market will endure interest rate hikes
Two years into the pandemic, the housing market remains on fire and shows few signs of receding. What was initially fueled by buyers' need for more space and a low interest rate environment has proven to have staying power. Now, with inflation hitting 7.9%, a 40-year high, in February, the Federal ... READ MORE >
RSM US Supply Chain Index posted the best result in a year
As much of the world eases COVID restrictions, we believe that the worst of domestic supply chain issues are in the rear-view mirror. Yet rising infections in some countries, along with geopolitical tensions, could delay a full return to normal. After a dip in January because of the omicron ... READ MORE >