New weekly COVID-19 cases in children hit record levels the week of Aug. 26 in the United States, representing 22% of the total cases that week, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics. Hospitalizations of children from the virus have been rising as well, and now comprise between 2% and 4% of the ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Budget brinkmanship as another debt-ceiling debacle looms
Once Congress returns from its summer recess this month, it will need to take up the funding of the government past Sept. 30, when the financing of its debt runs out at the end of the fiscal year. The short window between the start of the congressional calendar and the debt financing deadline ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The ‘real’ unemployment rate
Friday’s unemployment rate of 5.2% for August is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States. Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics' way of measuring unemployment, those who are out of work and no longer looking for a job are not counted as unemployed, so they do not ... READ MORE >
U.S. August employment report: Delta variant exerts a drag on hiring
What is obvious in the August jobs report that was released on Friday is that the delta variant has affected overall economic activity and hiring. Until a small portion of the public decides to get vaccinated, both the economy and hiring will be held hostage to the ebb and flow of the ... READ MORE >
Global manufacturing activity and delta-induced supply chain disruptions
Rising costs and supply chain constraints continue to disrupt U.S. manufacturing activity and may worsen as the world’s factory floors brace for more shutdowns linked to the spread of the coronavirus delta variant. Even U.S. companies that do not have operations in other countries can expect to feel the ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. trade deficit improved in July after a record high
The U.S. trade deficit of goods and services, which measures exports minus imports, declined by $4.6 billion to $70.1 billion in July as domestic demand for foreign goods slowed and foreign countries' needs for U.S. goods rose. Even though this number was in line with the advanced goods trade balance ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: After the deluge
First-time jobless claims decreased to 340,000 for the week ending Aug. 28, from an upwardly revised 354,000 the week before, while continuing claims fell to 2.75 million, according to government data released on Thursday. While the weekly churn in the labor market is always of paramount interest, that ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Gimme shelter
Financial conditions in the U.K. have settled into a groove that would be rivaled only by the late Charlie Watts. As a result of this stability, the RSM UK Financial Conditions Index in August moved to its highest level since 2014, reaching 1.1 standard deviations above levels of risk that are ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: The global threat of a resurgent virus
Canada’s financial markets continued their cautious optimism in August despite the unexpected 1.1% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product because of declining demand in exports, supply chain constraints and residential investment. That economic surprise may slow those at the Bank of Canada ... READ MORE >
August jobs report preview: Expect a hint of delta drag on hiring
We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. That seasonal hiring will add roughly 225,000 jobs to the top-line number, while the unemployment rate will decline ... READ MORE >