The headline Producer Price Index increased by 0.7% in August, a slower pace than the 1.0% monthly gains in June and July, while the core index excluding food and energy rose by 0.6%. The lower numbers indicate that inflation, at least from the sellers’ perspective, has most likely passed its summer peak. … READ MORE >
coronavirus
Initial jobless claims fall to 310,000, but expect volatility in the coming weeks
First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 310,000 for the week ending Sept. 4, down from 345,000 the week before and well below the 13-week moving average of 377,000. Continuing claims increased to 2.783 million for the week ending Aug. 28. … READ MORE >
Avoiding a COVID-19 pandemic among children
High transmissibility and case severity of new variants add urgency to protecting those who cannot be vaccinated, increasing overall vaccination rates, and ensuring a safe and productive environment for a full reopening of the economy. … READ MORE >
Budget brinkmanship as another debt-ceiling debacle looms
Once Congress returns from its summer recess, it will need to take up the funding of the government past Sept. 30, when the financing of its debt runs out at the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers need to learn from the past that such debt ceiling showdowns extract a price from the economy. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The ‘real’ unemployment rate
When those who are not in the labor force but want a job are included, that rate, which we call the “real” unemployment rate, is closer to 8.4%. … READ MORE >
U.S. August employment report: Delta variant exerts a drag on hiring
Hiring slowed to 235,000 in August, down from a revised gain of 1.053 million jobs in July, as the unemployment rate declined to 5.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. … READ MORE >
Global manufacturing activity and delta-induced supply chain disruptions
Rising costs and supply chain constraints continue to disrupt U.S. manufacturing activity and may worsen as the world’s factory floors brace for more shutdowns linked to the spread of the coronavirus delta variant. Even U.S. companies that do not have operations in other countries can expect to feel the strain, considering they likely have global suppliers somewhere in their supply chain. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. trade deficit improved in July after a record high
The U.S. trade deficit of goods and services, which measures exports minus imports, declined by $4.6 billion to $70.1 billion in July as domestic demand for foreign goods slowed and foreign countries’ needs for U.S. goods rose. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: After the deluge
First-time jobless claims decreased to 340,000 for the week ending Aug. 28, from an upwardly revised 354,000 the week before, while continuing claims fell to 2.75 million, according to government data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: Gimme shelter
The RSM UK Financial Conditions Index has moved to its highest level since 2014, reaching 1.1 standard deviations above levels of risk that are normally priced into financial assets. … READ MORE >