We expect an increase in total employment of 600,000 in August with the chance of a stronger number linked to seasonal hiring in education when the jobs report is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Consumer confidence falls amid spread of the delta variant
The headline consumer confidence index released by the Conference Board on Tuesday declined to 113.8 in August from a downwardly revised 125.1 in July, in the latest sign that the spread of the delta variant is beginning to weigh on the economy. … READ MORE >
Coronavirus update: Fourth wave of infections to carry economic impact
In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
After a year of rapid growth in the manufacturing sector, there are signs that the buoyancy is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in August after peaking in July. … READ MORE >
Amid Ida’s devastating human toll, the national economic damage is likely to be limited
In our estimation, the disruption to economic activity, including higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions and extensive property damage, will result in a 0.2% drag on American gross domestic product in this quarter. … READ MORE >
Child tax credit: Potential game changer for American families
The checks being sent to families under the expanded child tax credit will provide an additional boost to overall spending at a time with rising risks to the spending outlook linked to the spread of the delta variant. … READ MORE >
Fed Jackson Hole conference: Powell reaffirms market expectations
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s widely anticipated comments on the economic outlook did not disappoint on Friday. He reaffirmed market expectations of a slowing in the pace of monetary accommodation before the end of the year while retaining flexibility around the rising economic risks linked to the delta variant. … READ MORE >
Income and spending remained strong in July, though a spending slowdown looms
American personal income increased robustly in July, likely because of the expanded child tax credit that we think will bolster overall spending by roughly $35 billion this year. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Why the Fed is likely to talk about the unemployment gap at Jackson Hole
The focus on economic inequality and how monetary policy can address it is at the core of the Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed on Friday. The symposium features the theme of “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy.” … READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. … READ MORE >