The headline consumer confidence index released by the Conference Board on Tuesday declined to 113.8 in August from a downwardly revised 125.1 in July in the latest sign that the spread of the delta variant is beginning to weigh on the economy. The decline brings the index to the lowest level since ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
Coronavirus update: Fourth wave of infections to carry economic impact
At some point, the resurgence of the coronavirus will set the American and global economies back. In the United States, infections have increased to a rate of 157,000 per day, with each loss of life and the use of medical resources and foregone activity taking their toll on economic progress. The ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Still expansionary, but slipping from its peak
This has been a durables-led recovery, with employment in the manufacturing sector back to 97% of its pre-pandemic levels. But after a year of rapid growth, there are signs that the buoyancy among manufacturers is ebbing. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, while still elevated, declined in ... READ MORE >
Amid Ida’s devastating human toll, the national economic damage is likely to be limited
Even as Hurricane Ida leaves a trail of disrupted lives, destroyed homes and shattered communities in its wake, the Category 4 storm will in the end most likely have a modest impact on overall U.S. economic activity. In our estimation, the disruption to economic activity, including higher energy ... READ MORE >
Child tax credit: Potential game changer for American families
One aspect of the American Rescue Plan signed into law in March included an extension of the child tax credit first enacted in 1997 that would send direct aid to families. Those aid checks, for families with children making up to $150,000 or $112,500 for a single parent who is a head of household. ... READ MORE >
Fed Jackson Hole conference: Powell reaffirms market expectations
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s widely anticipated comments on the economic outlook did not disappoint on Friday as he reaffirmed market expectations of a slowing in the pace of monetary accommodation before the end of the year while retaining flexibility around the rising economic risks linked ... READ MORE >
Income and spending remained strong in July, though a spending slowdown looms
American personal income increased robustly in July, likely because of the expanded child tax credit that we think will bolster overall spending by roughly $35 billion this year. Once government transfers are accounted for, personal income rose a more modest and sustainable 0.2% on the month, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Why the Fed is likely to talk about the unemployment gap at Jackson Hole
Underscoring the Federal Reserve’s shift in policy to flexible average inflation targeting is the idea that the best way to address inequality is through a lower unemployment rate. While the Fed’s traditional emphasis on inflation and monetary policy is not passé, the idea that the central banks should ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims: More noise than signal
First-time jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 21 increased to 353,000 from 349,000 the previous week, which is below the 13-week moving average of 385,200. Investors should anticipate more noise than signal from this data over the next three weeks because of holiday-induced distortions. Just as ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Shipping costs reach 11-year high
The rise of the delta variant in Asia combined with surging demand around the world have sent shipping costs higher, which will show up in higher costs of imported goods as supply chain problems persist. The Baltic Dry Index, a metric of shipping costs, has reached an 11-year high as the resurgence of ... READ MORE >