The emergence of the delta variant around the world and among the non-vaccinated population in the United States presents another round of economic risks that are part of the reason why we recently lowered our growth forecast for the year from 7.5% to 7%. It appears that an arc of instability from ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation expectations remain rational and muted
A look at one of our preferred measurements of inflation expectations implies that the risk of a sustained outbreak of inflation is receding just as another set of inflation data—the Consumer Price Index for June—is set to publish on Tuesday. Inflation expectations play an important role in spending ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Improving labor market signals increased consumer confidence and spending
There is no doubt that an economic recovery is unfolding. Since the beginning of the year, initial claims for unemployment benefits have been in general decline, falling from 900,000 per week to roughly 370,000 recently. This drop in unemployment claims coincides with a steady increase in consumer ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims imply that ending benefits does not improve employment numbers
Over the past few weeks, we have observed a steady but uneven decline in first-time jobless claims on the way back to what we expect will be a range of 200,000 to 230,000, last seen before the pandemic. To push that process along, 26 states, citing demand for workers, have ended extra unemployment ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: May was another good month for the labor market
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released by the Labor Department on Wednesday strongly suggests that American workers are enjoying a moment when work is plentiful and firms appear willing to meet demand for higher wages. Through May, there is roughly one unemployed person per job opening as ... READ MORE >
Economic update: GDP to grow above 7% this year as expansion takes hold
The American economy will continue to boom in the second half of the year following what we expect will be 7.8% growth through the first six months. While growth will almost certainly peak in the second quarter at our revised 9.2% forecast, rising wages among workers down the income ladder will ... READ MORE >
June jobs report: Let the good times roll
The U.S. economy generated a robust 850,000 jobs in June while the unemployment rate advanced to 5.9% amid an increase of 151,602 workers in the labor force, according to government data released Friday. This combination of job generation and workers returning is a good thing and illustrates that the ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims resume their downward trend, falling to 364,000
Initial jobless claims declined to 364,000 for the week ending June 26, resuming their downward trend following a few weeks of flat to down readings. The weekly number is the lowest posting of the pandemic and indicative of what we expect to be a downward march toward pre-pandemic levels in first-time ... READ MORE >
RSM UK Financial Conditions Index: A milestone after 7 years of stress
Financial markets continue to signal little to no unease over the spread of the delta variant in the latest manifestation of the global pandemic as the United Kingdom moves toward a wider reopening on July 19. Despite the public health risks around the variant, financial conditions imply rising risk ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: Accommodation to continue while economy shows signs of revitalization
At its June policy meeting, the Bank of Canada reiterated its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy as uncertainty over the pace of the pandemic abates and the economy recovers. As it has for the past 16 months, the bank is keeping its policy rate at near-zero to maintain liquidity ... READ MORE >