Americans’ personal income increased by 0.6% in December, driving their savings positions higher. The gains, reported by the Commerce Department on Friday, are creating the conditions for what we believe will be a consumer-led boom in the second half of the year. While spending to end 2020 was ... READ MORE >
coronavirus
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Mixed results and a potential pause in the recovery
Sentiment among American manufacturers has receded again because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 that has taken a toll on the labor market, consumer demand and the economy. Since bottoming out in April and then bouncing back by October, the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index is showing signs of ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: New home sales bounce back
New home sales bounced back to 842,000 in December, representing a 1.8% increase over the previous month, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. The 11% month-over-month decline in November was a jarring halt to the red-hot housing market that had new home sales in excess of 949,000 from July ... READ MORE >
Fourth-quarter GDP: Growth eases as economy decelerates
The American economy posted 4% growth in the fourth quarter as the recovery from the depths of the pandemic decelerated into the end of 2020, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. While a growth rate at such heights would normally be reason to celebrate, it represents a major disappointment and ... READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Fed adds to debate on further fiscal aid
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in the opening statement of his news conference on Wednesday that the arrival of vaccines has bolstered the economic outlook for later this year and noted the role of monetary policy in combating the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. At the same time, ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. durable goods orders rise for eighth straight month
Orders for long-lasting factory goods increased in December for the eighth straight month, according to U.S. Department of Commerce data released on Wednesday. New orders for durable goods rose 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted $245.3 billion in December, following an upwardly revised 1.2% gain (previously ... READ MORE >
Economic policy primer: The difference between aid and stimulus
During the pandemic, the federal government has put forward close to $3.8 trillion, or roughly 18% of gross domestic product, to offset the adverse economic impact of the public health crisis. The Biden administration has asked for another $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid and stimulus, on the back of the $908 ... READ MORE >
How regulatory oversight may change at five agencies under Biden
With President Biden’s cabinet taking shape, regulated entities in the financial services industry like banks, specialty lenders and capital markets firms are starting to get a better picture of what changes might be in store. For these firms, the question is no longer if regulations will change, but ... READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: West Coast container activity suggests an end-of-year pause in the recovery
Import activity at West Coast ports continues to anticipate robust consumer demand despite rising prices and the first hint of a pause caused by the resurgence in the coronavirus at the end of the year. Seaports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and Seattle/Tacoma handled 22.2% more containers in ... READ MORE >
U.S. precautionary savings and the coming economic expansion
Savings by American households have soared to $1.1 trillion above their long-term average from 1965 to 2020. That excess savings and near-term policy decisions around fiscal aid and stimulus will play a large role in determining the shape, scale and duration of what we expect to be the coming economic ... READ MORE >